I took a random sampling of 15 polls and looked at the five issues Americans say they care about most. Number five is foreign affairs and war. Number four is democracy and democratic values. Number three is healthcare. Number two is immigration. Number one, of course, is the economy. Foreign affairs and war aren’t showing up because people are pumped about the war in Iran. Democracy is an almost entirely Democratic-signifying issue, and voters nearly always trust Democrats more on healthcare.

Immigration is the first good news for Republicans because nobody trusts Democrats on immigration. Some Democratic voters are worried about overenforcement, and even a Republican congresswoman from Miami has told Trump that he’s listening to the wrong advisers and going too far. But by and large, Republicans can argue that they’re correcting something that’s been wrong for a long time. Then you get to the economy, which is normally sewn into the DNA of the Republican Party. The problem is that when voters say “economy” right now, they mean inflation and gas prices — two areas where things have come in hotter than Trump swore they would.

The rest of the top issues include crime, Social Security, housing affordability, government ethics and reform, the SAVE America Act, Trump himself, and abortion. I don’t see many things there that Republicans want to discuss. I see plenty that Democrats would like to discuss because Republicans have taken a position and now have to defend their solutions. It’s easier to run against a problem than defend a solution, and Trump is very good at doing things. He explores every legal option to do a thing, which creates a lot of surface area for Democrats to run against.

Across the last 10 midterms, the five most common issues were crime and drugs, immigration, foreign affairs and war, healthcare, and the economy. The economy appeared in every one. But some issues that used to matter have disappeared. Morals and family values were major concerns in 1994, 1998, and 2006, but they’ve completely fallen off the political radar. If anything, shedding the morals-and-family-values label helped make the Republican Party more potent. Gun policy was important in 2018 and 2022 but didn’t make the current top 10. The federal budget deficit made the list only in 1986. Nobody cares about it now, which is why nobody is particularly interested in changing it.

In 2018, the top issue was healthcare, followed by immigration, the economy, and gun policy. In 2022, it was inflation, followed by abortion, crime, gun policy, and immigration. This year looks a little more like the Bush era, with foreign wars and foreign policy returning to the center. But the biggest difference is enthusiasm. Democrats are doing jumping jacks, keeping their heart rates up, ready to run through the door like the Kool-Aid Man to vote. I don’t see that same enthusiasm among Republicans, and I don’t see a message telling voters what Republicans will do about the things they care about most — at least not yet.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:40 - Midterm Issues

00:18:04 - Update

00:19:55 - Paramount Settlement

00:23:09 - Trump and Mamdani

00:27:17 - Trump TV and the Press Pool

00:31:50 - Interview with Gabe Fleisher

01:16:09 - Wrap-up

There’s something real in the question JB Pritzker is asking: When are you going to do something that makes me happy? Stop explaining why things I don’t like are happening and start explaining what you did to make them better. Trump was on the right side of public sentiment when he pointed out problems under Biden. What’s gotten him into trouble is applying his own solutions.

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According to AAA’s live average, gas is at $4.44 nationally. It’s higher in states like California and New York, but even here in Texas, where we have relatively low gas prices, it’s edging toward $4. During the memorandum of understanding, that son of a bitch kissed the twos. Before the war in Iran, it was sitting around the twos. It’s not good right now.

The question is whether this is Iran’s play. Iran is extraordinarily sophisticated in its understanding of the American electorate and the American democratic system. Are they timing their greatest chaos in the region to spike the price of oil as high as possible during election season? The United States appeared to have established a flow of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but now we’ve seen missiles and drones fired at American vessels and major damage to Saudi Arabia’s 745-mile east-west pipeline.

That pipeline can move four to five million barrels a day — roughly 4 to 5 percent of the global supply. Saudi Aramco has already told three European refiners they won’t receive their full September allotments, forcing them to buy emergency stock on the open market. Because oil is a globally traded commodity, that drives up the price. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth has warned that stockpile releases and access to previously restricted oil stored abroad had constrained prices, but those buffers are now played out. Iran has been warning about $200-a-barrel oil since the beginning of the conflict.

The obvious historical comparison is Jimmy Carter. But this isn’t 1979. Headline inflation was 11.8 percent then, compared with 3.4 percent now, and unemployment was 6 percent instead of 4.1 percent. We’re doing better by those measures, but will any of it matter? Gas was 98 cents a gallon in August 1979. In August 2026, it was $4.20, and it’s even higher now.

The sunniest version of Trump’s tariff policy was that he’d become the greatest energy president of all time and drive gas prices low enough to give him room to negotiate better trade deals. All of that went out the window with the rush into Iran. Even if you don’t totally hate the war from a foreign-policy standpoint, you can understand that this is political poison. It’s strychnine for the average voter. Electing Trump was, in part, a cry for economic relief from people who didn’t trust Joe Biden to provide it. The numbers currently suggest Democrats will receive that same benefit of the doubt. Whether it holds when people vote is the question.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:25 - Gas Prices

00:16:34 - Update

00:16:59 - Data Centers

00:18:20 - ICE

00:19:34 - Kennedy Center

00:21:46 - Interview with Michael Cohen

01:00:02 - Wrap-up

Donald Trump spent years demanding cheaper borrowing. He waited out Jerome Powell, threatened to kick Powell out, and finally put Warsh in his place after Powell’s term ended. Then Warsh raised the rates. Trump responded by declaring that interest rates in the United States should be 1 percent or less and demanding that the Fed lower them fast. He wasn’t in love with the decision, but he didn’t trash Warsh — at least not yet.

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This is earwly to throw out a smear like “you’re an alcoholic.” If the only thing Acton needs to do to beat that charge is not act like an alcoholic in public, she’ll likely be able to beat it. Acton is further ahead in this race than Republicans would like to see in a state Donald Trump won by the amount he did, so they’re trying to change the math of the game. I don’t think this is going to be enough.

What Vivek really wants is a debate. The thing that put him on the map wasn’t his campaign ads or gigantic crowds — I was at the pizza places where he held events in Iowa, and they weren’t packed to the rafters. He built his reputation by fricasseeing Nikki Haley. He ent there, as the kids say. Now he desperately wants Acton onstage so he can drag the race into the mud, throw Republican red meat at her, and relitigate COVID. If Acton believes she’s ahead, her answer is simple: You can keep that debate spirit to yourself, Vivek.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has kept the Trump administration’s new mail-in-ballot restrictions from taking effect for the midterms. The existing block remains in place, allowing election officials to continue their current procedures. This is about where I thought things would land. We won’t have to worry about it for the midterms, but the broader fight will continue afterward. If Trump loses control of the House and enters the back half of his lame-duck term, his attention is going to turn toward executive orders like this.

Texas Democrat Al Green is also forcing the House to address another effort to impeach Donald Trump. The real political tension isn’t on the Republican side. Democrats have to decide how much they want to tell voters that regaining the House means going back to 2018 through 2020 — impeachment, impeachment, impeachment. Did that really move the needle? Did it get anybody the political wins they wanted? Not really. Republicans would love to remind voters that Democrats just want power again.

Finally, Mitch McConnell is back in the Senate after months away. Exactly how much Mitch is in the McConnell, I don’t know. Even in the worst video I saw, he seemed north of Dianne Feinstein — not a high bar, but nothing involving age in the Senate is. He doesn’t appear to be in fighting shape, but he’s a warm body, and Republicans need that vote on a lot of business between now and January.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro

02:41 - Anti-Amy Acton Ads

07:18 - Tim Ryan on Crypto and Clarity Act

24:39 - Update

25:40 - Mail-in Ballots

27:20 - Al Green

29:02 - Mitch McConnell

31:58 - Tim Ryan on Political Careers and Running for President

53:04 - Wrap-up

Now Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says the industry needs to “pace the frontier.” OpenAI and Anthropic are primarily racing each other to build the best model, while Google, Meta, and SpaceX AI could enter the conversation. Pacing the frontier means slowing that race while also trusting China to slow down. Buried within the argument is the idea that competing companies should be allowed to coordinate and that the government should back them because the stakes are so high. One might say this is where Anthropic’s messianic complex comes from: If you believe you’re saving humanity every day, then your logic can’t be questioned.

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So why are we talking about it? Because Trump would rather have a conversation about whether a $1.3 trillion gift is feasible than talk about $4 gas, high diesel prices, inflation, or the state of the economy. Promising $5,000 reframes him as somebody who understands that people need cash. After a brief improvement in economic sentiment, things look dour again, and Trump now says the Iran war will end shortly after the midterms. Even through his rose-colored glasses that sometimes turn BS brown, he’s admitting this won’t be over before November.

Republicans are heading into a massive fight. New polling has Sherrod Brown in Ohio and James Talarico in Texas ahead by four or five points, while Lindsey Graham’s sister leads by only two in South Carolina. I’d still bet on Ken Paxton over Talarico, but Talarico is moving toward the center. He says he opposes trans athletes competing where fairness and safety are at stake and would sign a law banning sex changes for minors. Not long ago, that would’ve been called an attack on trans children. Now a more liberal candidate is saying it because he believes the issue is an exhaust port on his Death Star. I’m ending this week more inclined toward My Blue Heaven than I was on Labor Day.

The White House is also promising $500 rebates to roughly one million Obamacare customers in 30 states who were allegedly overcharged. That’s separate from Trump’s $5,000 promise, and neither announcement means money has reached anybody. This looks like an answer to Democrats’ warnings about the expiration of Obamacare subsidies — one of the issues that drove the earlier government shutdown. Is it really going to happen? I have no idea. But it puts the administration where it wants to be: talking about what it’ll do for voters who are hurting for money.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has interrupted Republicans’ effort to use a new congressional map in Missouri, clearing the way for the older map approved by the state Supreme Court. Republicans wanted one more House seat from the redraw, but election officials need usable instructions before ballots go out. The broader redistricting push was hot and heavy a few months ago, but it was also slapdash. That’s the Trump administration: Somebody has an idea, everybody says it’s great, they start doing it, and they figure out whether it’s possible about halfway through.

John Fetterman also appeared by recorded video at the Republican midterm convention to introduce fellow Pennsylvania senator Dave McCormick. Fetterman called himself a Democrat, praised McCormick, and discussed working with Trump to protect steel jobs. If you think that means he’s switching parties, he poured cold water on it. He remains a proud Democrat and says he votes with the party 80 to 90 percent of the time. But imagine Democrats reach 50 Senate seats and Fetterman becomes vote 51. I’d love to ask Abdul El-Sayed which he’d prefer: a Democratic majority that depends on Fetterman, or Fetterman revealing his “true colors” and becoming a Republican.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:11 - Trump’s $5,000 Promise

00:06:30 - Polling

00:09:42 - Interview with Katherine Dee

00:31:29 - Trump’s $500 Refunds

00:33:09 - Supreme Court

00:34:29 - John Fetterman

00:36:29 - Interview with Katherine Dee, con’t

00:58:42 - Wrap-up

The question is whether unaffiliated voters have a reason to vote Republican — and whether the Sununu name is enough. I’d still consider a Sununu victory a major upset, although some polling has him within the margin of error or leading Pappas. If Republicans win New Hampshire and Mike Rogers wins Michigan, My Blue Heaven is over. Democrats can’t take the Senate while losing those two races.

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A deal with Canada was allegedly close before it fell apart at the eleventh hour. Neither country really wants this. They both want to talk tough, and Donald Trump is definitely throwing his weight around, while Mark Carney is trying to squeeze as much political juice as possible out of standing up to him. But the Quebec by-election has come and gone, and there’s still no agreement. You’ve got to wonder how long this can continue.

Carney is also making a more credible threat of moving Canada closer to China. At the end of the day, there aren’t really middle powers operating in independent silos. You’ve got to stand next to one of the big players, and Carney is smart enough to understand that. He needs to show Canada has another path that the United States doesn’t want, because otherwise Canada is effectively an American vassal state. Put aside what’s right or good — that’s the reality. I still suspect this gets resolved, but that’s just me.

Meanwhile, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker is launching a political action committee that plans to invest at least $20 million in Democratic House races, including overlooked Republican-held districts in Ohio and Texas. The obvious question is how much helping other Democrats helps Pritzker, who is very much rumored to be considering a presidential run in 2028. His greatest advantage is money, and he’ll need to start making friends. But Democrats traditionally like their billionaires to keep cutting checks rather than seeking power themselves. Ask Tom Steyer or Michael Bloomberg how that works out.

The first two disclosed targets are Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th District and Brandon Herrera in Texas’ 23rd. Both seats are held by Republicans, and both campaigns give Pritzker a chance to demonstrate that he can expand the map. It’ll be interesting to see who else receives help and whether those candidates remember it later. Pritzker isn’t wet behind the ears — he’s already a governor — but spending money on other Democrats and converting that spending into national support are two different things.

Finally, Saudi Arabia says Houthi attacks have wounded 73 civilians and caused fires and temporary shutdowns at energy facilities. Iran is trying to create another edge that could force the United States toward negotiations on more favorable terms. Its inability to stop oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz has weakened its leverage, so we’re seeing more tough talk and more activity from the network of resistance. But the Houthis exist in a parallel world and aren’t completely beholden to Tehran. How loyal are any of Iran’s proxies to an Iran that’s increasingly broke? I don’t know what to make of it yet.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:05:15 - Chris Cillizza on the Midterms and Beyond

00:37:37 - Update

00:39:23 - Trade War

00:43:25 - Pritzker

00:46:08 - Iran

00:48:27 - Chris Cillizza’s Midterm Prediction

01:08:51 - Wrap-up

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Republicans have two exceptionally weak Senate challengers in states where they should perform well: Collins in Georgia and Michael Whatley in North Carolina. I’ll eat the L on Whatley because I thought he’d do better. I expected the environment to be bad for Republicans, but we’ve reached the point where nobody not named Donald Trump feels comfortable telling voters how awesome everything is. Trump’s secret is that you always say it’s awesome. Sometimes people believe you, sometimes they don’t, but you can’t have a parade unless somebody leads it. In Georgia, I think this race is wrapped. Ossoff will remain a senator.

Meanwhile, a federal judge has blocked Trump’s latest attempt to narrow birthright citizenship. The revised order targeted alleged birth tourism, certain foreign-government employees, and people designated as alien enemies, but Judge Deborah Boardman said those categories barely resembled the exceptions previously recognized by the Supreme Court and found the order almost certainly unconstitutional. This is the Trump 2.0 philosophy: Get shots up. Push, push, push. Make judges knock it down, take it to the Supreme Court, and make the justices rule.

I’ve tried to interrogate why I don’t get as angry or worried about every one of these moves as other people do. Part of it is that there are so many of them, and I need to see how they rattle around before developing an emotional opinion. I’m willing to accept the criticism that I’m whistling while Rome burns, or while an arsonist fiddles with a matchbook. But the alternative is becoming a herky-jerky psychopath whose emotions are entirely controlled by the Trump administration. They decide when you’re mad, sad, or happy because everything depends on their latest action. I don’t want that, either.

Finally, Hakeem Jeffries also got another preview of life with a narrow Democratic majority after Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez rescued a Republican procedural vote without warning him. Jeffries and Democratic leaders called it a serious breach of trust and sent the matter to a caucus committee, triggering backlash from progressives and centrists worried about uneven punishment and loyalty rules. If Democrats win a WINO majority — fewer than 15 seats — this will be Jeffries’ life. Be careful what you wish for, Speaker Jeffries.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:45 - Georgia

00:06:27 - Midterms with Bill Scher

00:32:07 - Update

00:34:33 - House of Representatives

00:36:06 - Birthright Citizenship

00:39:18 - Hakeem Jeffries

00:40:46 - Midterms with Bill Scher, con’t

01:03:44 - Wrap-up

Hakeem Jeffries, meanwhile, got a preview of his possible future as speaker. Republicans were short on a rule vote and headed toward another humiliation until Democrats Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez voted with them. Neither warned Jeffries. The rule included relief for Maine lobstermen, a major Golden priority, but it also cleared a path for a Republican resolution condemning socialism and urging passage of the Save America Act. That forced other vulnerable Democrats toward a difficult election-season vote while sparing Republicans from owning their failure.

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The reasoning is simple: If they’re not going to accomplish anything in this divided, fractious Congress, why stay? Republicans have such a thin majority that they can’t agree on much or put Democrats on defense beyond the broadest, most useless bills. Their members would rather go home, campaign, press the flesh, shake hands, and kiss babies because they believe they’re fighting for their political lives.

The mood inside the Republican conference is bleak, bleak, bleak. One member holds a district Trump won by 10 points and the Republican candidate previously carried by 16. Their internal polling now has that Republican ahead by one point. Uno. These are the seats nobody treats as toss-ups until a wave turns them into toss-ups. Republicans are comparing their internal numbers in the hallways, and they don’t like what they see.

In 2022, Republican leaders told members they’d win the House by 20 seats; they won by five. The rule of thumb for some members now is to take whatever leadership says and subtract 20. Leadership says Republicans will hold by five, so members are preparing for Democrats to win a 15-seat majority. If Trump-plus-10 districts are already looking like toss-ups, they want to be home doing everything possible to eke out a victory.

They probably won’t leave immediately. Going home would be a gigantic red flag from leadership, and fundraisers are already scheduled throughout Washington. Members might need time in their districts, but they also need money for television and streaming ads. That means showing up and giving face time to the people attending those fundraisers.

The wild card is Big Chungus. If Trump says Congress should go home, Mike Johnson will face enormous pressure to disperse everybody. If Trump says members should remain in Washington, they’ll stay. From everything I’m hearing, there isn’t much good news on the Republican side. My personal barometer between WINO and My Blue Heaven is swinging left.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:29 - House Republicans

00:12:53 - Update

00:14:25 - Mail-in Ballots

00:19:15 - Bonds

00:21:51 - Ballroom

00:25:46 - Interview with Riley Blanton

01:12:43 - Wrap-up

Then came the controversy and the money disappeared. Somewhere along the way, the famous gay conservative became ex-gay, Catholic, and a flamethrower who knew where bodies were buried. As George Santos put it, “The bitch knows too much.” After a spectacular falling-out with Laura Loomer, who now claims credit, ICE detained Milo at the New Orleans airport and deported him. Soon afterward, he posted an ad for a KFC sandwich called the Dirty Louisiana. His caption: “F off.” You know, still pretty funny.

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Brent crude remains just under $90 a barrel. That’s the low end of high, not the meaningful decline we saw during the memorandum-of-understanding period. Iran is at an impasse. Regime leaders have reportedly been doxxed, people aren’t getting paid because the country can’t move oil, and there are rumors that the supreme leader may be dead. If Iran’s leverage since the revolution was “Don’t interact with us or we’ll derail the world economy and set the region on fire,” that doesn’t appear to have happened. Its proxies haven’t ignited the region, its oil isn’t moving normally, and it may now be operating without a supreme leader.

Politically, though, this has been an absolute disaster for Trump. It fractured his right flank and gave independent voters permission to say, “No, this guy sucks. He lied.” He called himself the president of peace, and now we’ve been at war with Iran for six months. Iran’s goal is to make Trump pay in the midterms, and Trump is doing a lot to help. He doesn’t have tremendous instincts for winning races when he isn’t on the ballot.

The administration may be looking to Venezuela for relief. It’s negotiating with the interim government for American ownership stakes in more than a dozen productive oil fields holding about 90 billion barrels of proven reserves. Venezuela would receive investment and additional revenue while American and other private firms rebuilt production. Is this energy security or an extraordinary American claim on another country’s resources? To quote the Stephen A. Smith meme: We don’t care. At least not when it comes to the one thing that matters in American politics — gas prices.

So go gas prices, so goes the economy, inflation, and probably the midterms. Trump’s original pitch was that tariffs might create instability and make foreign goods more expensive, but Americans could count on cheaper energy. A funny thing happened on the way to Tehran, and that got screwed up. More Venezuelan oil could push prices down and make it easier to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve without buying expensive crude. It would also almost certainly benefit the oil companies that remain furious about Hugo Chávez taking their equipment.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:14 - Trade War with Canada

00:34:44 - Update

00:36:49 - Iran

00:42:19 - Venezuelan Oil

00:45:13 - 9/11 Trial

00:47:25 - Evan Scrimshaw’s Midterm Picks

01:25:03 - NFL

01:48:34 - Wrap-up

Darlene Graham proved me wrong in South Carolina, defeating Ralph Norman 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent. I thought Norman had the momentum and that Graham wasn’t built for the low-propensity turnout operation a special election requires. Instead, Donald Trump came to South Carolina, held a tele-rally, and MAGA Inc. poured nearly $1 million into the race when it mattered. Granted, it was only a five-point win in a special election where Trump remains very popular, but I was loud wrong. I thought I was going to be the clever boy calling her loss, and I got smoked like a pancake.

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The problem is that Darlene has run an objectively bad campaign, even though the campaign she needed wasn’t difficult. Make it all about Lindsey. South Carolina Republicans had already chosen him, and nobody knew him like his sister. She could’ve presented herself as a caretaker working with his staff to finish the agenda he spent his life building. Every sentence should’ve begun or ended with “Lindsey told me” or “This is what Lindsey would’ve wanted.” Erase the Darlene.

Instead, she’s tried to establish the Darlene show. She’s drawn distinctions between Lindsey’s foreign-policy focus and her domestic priorities, but if she’s going to be anything other than Lindsey’s caretaker, voters don’t know her. That choice also makes every piece of her own record fair game. Then she delivered one of the biggest gaffes of the midterms when Greta Van Susteren gave her a question about China and she absolutely gagged on it. You’ve got to know “China bad.” It’s a two-word answer. She hasn’t done good; she’s done bad.

This is also a low, low, low, low, low-turnout runoff. Dozens of people are going to vote, and the people who show up in elections like this are usually the most energized. The most energized South Carolina Republicans aren’t necessarily Lindsey Graham voters. Many of them are the people who hated Lindsey Graham and wanted a more purebred MAGA senator. Darlene has the Graham name, but the name was already controversial within the party. Her hedge is Trump. The question is whether Trump can still get those voters out.

Trump’s average approval is 39.5 percent, with 57.2 percent disapproving. Stinky, bad, awful. If you’re in the low 40s, it’s bad. If you’re in the high 30s, it’s terrible. Darlene says she’s focused on domestic policy, the economy, and kitchen-table issues, but Trump’s economic numbers are even worse: 35.9 percent approve and 60.9 percent disapprove. That’s a 25-point spread. Donald Trump has been the wind beneath her wings, but I don’t know what kind of draft that endorsement creates anymore, even in deep-red South Carolina.

MAGA Inc. has $404 million on hand but spent only $2.3 million through July before dumping nearly $1 million into this runoff at the last minute. A huge cash advantage works best when you define people early, not when you wait until the final days. The energy and the issues are with Democrats, while two supposed Republican advantages — money and redistricting — don’t look like advantages right now. If Trump’s endorsement and a last-minute MAGA Inc. spending spree can’t save Lindsey Graham’s sister in South Carolina, that’s a bad sign for Republicans far beyond this runoff.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:17 - College Sports Bill

00:08:01 - Darlene Graham

00:25:20 - Canada

00:30:45 - Iran

00:34:18 - Mail-in Voting

00:37:57 - Interview with Eric Geller

01:09:00 - Wrap-up

Canada is in a weaker economic position, so the Trump administration believes it can be ruthless and demand more. But there’s an argument that you shouldn’t be so ruthless with your best friends, and America and Canada should be very close because we share so much.

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Scenario one is Ah, Nevertheless: Republicans retain both the House and Senate. They can lose two House seats and still hold 218, and a few candidate-specific wins, redrawn districts, or polling errors could get them there. The Senate is already a hard climb for Democrats, and all Trump has done his entire career is surprise people. But pretty much everything argues against this. The president’s party usually loses seats in the midterms, Trump’s approval and cost-of-living numbers stink on ice, and the battlefield is expanding into Republican territory. If the GOP holds both chambers, the story won’t be that Trump beat the odds. It’ll be that he is the odds. You don’t bet against Big Donny T.

Scenario two is WINO — Win in Name Only: Democrats win the House by fewer than 10 seats while Republicans retain the Senate. This is, in my view, the most likely scenario as of August. Democrats get Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, control of the legislative agenda, committee gavels, subpoena power, and the ability to impeach by a simple majority. But with a tiny margin, every ideological bloc becomes a potential veto point. A handful of members could threaten Jeffries’ speakership or stop legislation, and impeachment would be ceremonial without the Senate. Republicans keep the brake pedal while their senators become less Trump-aligned as his duck gets lamer. Democrats win the gavel, Republicans keep the brake pedal, and Jeffries ultimately pays the bill.

Scenario three is My Blue Heaven: Democrats win the House by more than 10 seats and take the Senate, giving them at least 223 House seats and 51 Democratic-aligned senators. Trump’s approval would need to remain in the low-to-mid-30s, affordability would need to dominate, and Democratic enthusiasm would have to survive the transition from the primaries to November. Progressives and the establishment would need to mend their fences and say, “Onward, onward, onward.” The Senate table would have to be almost entirely clean, including pickups in Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, plus a Michigan hold with Abdul El-Sayed.

Ah, Nevertheless would mean Trump wriggled out of it yet again and avoided impeachment. WINO would produce a loud, hectic Democratic House that can investigate and pass bills but can’t get much through the Senate. My Blue Heaven would give Democrats control of both chambers, allowing them to send legislation to Trump, multiply the investigations, and begin asking whether they have the votes to eliminate the filibuster.

Those are the three paths in front of us: Republicans hold, the parties split power narrowly, or Democrats get their deliverance. It’s a multi-versal ride that will only get clearer as we approach November.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:19 - Midterms Scenarios Revealed

00:23:35 - Bernie Endorses Angie Nixon

00:27:43 - National Debt

00:31:01 - Iran

00:35:16 - Kirk Bado on the Midterms

01:06:41 - Wrap-up

Alexander Vindman is an absolute embarrassment. Nixon would be Florida’s first Black senator, but she’s not going to be. This seat is done and dusted. Congratulations to Ashley Moody on six more years in the Senate.

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