The question is how much Democrats were elected because voters believe in Democratic leadership and how much they were elected because voters wanted a check on the Trump administration. If you listen to Jeffries, what Democrats essentially want to do is restore the funding that was removed to pay for the Big Beautiful Bill’s tax cuts.

That gets back to the problem Democrats have whenever they talk about affordability and why people don’t tend to trust them on the economy. It’s not that they’re proposing tax increases here. They want to restore cuts that were made to fund tax cuts. Whether voters read that distinction into it, we don’t know. Democrats will have a large enough majority to move what they want through the House. The question is whether any of it gets signed, beginning with the December 11 government-funding deadline.

On the other side of the aisle, Mike Johnson won’t seek the House Republican leadership job in the next Congress. Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan are competing to lead Republicans in the minority after both unsuccessfully pursued the speakership in 2023, before Johnson emerged as the compromise choice. Austin Pfluger is also challenging Tom Emmer for whip as Republicans prepare for their November 10 leadership election.

There’s jockeying on the Senate side too. Chuck Schumer appears to have the votes to remain leader, but Elizabeth Warren may try to move into the number-three position and become whip. Other Democratic senators could use the moment to extract guarantees from Schumer, including whether he’ll let them eliminate the filibuster. If Hawaii and Mississippi hold as they currently stand, Democrats would only need four Republicans to reach 60 votes.

Finally, the first — but almost certainly not the last — Trump administration official has resigned. Harmeet Dhillon is leaving the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, saying she made the decision weeks ago but was asked by the White House to wait until after the midterms. She says she wasn’t pushed out and wants to return to private practice. There are also rumors around Marco Rubio. I’ve long said he wasn’t leaving the State Department until there was an American flag flying over Havana, but maybe the Iran war has dragged on as far as it’s going to and he no longer has the juice to do anything in Cuba. We’ll wait and see.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:55 - Interview with Kirk Bado

00:26:10 - Update

00:27:18 - GOP Leadership

00:28:59 - Democrats

00:30:18 - Vance

00:31:56 - Interview with Kirk Bado, con’t

00:58:46 - Wrap-up

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This is a blue tsunami — an absolute wipeout of Republican power in the House and Senate. When Talarico is winning Texas by 20 points, Democrats are leading in Kansas and South Carolina is competitive, there’s nobody safe outside of maybe Tennessee and Kentucky. Democrats have a real shot at ending up with somewhere around 53 to 55 Senate seats, possibly more depending on races like Alaska and Iowa. I thought polarization would keep these midterms closer, and I was wrong. Justice for pollsters — they did the damn thing. Take your vibes and shove them.

Republicans are going to have to look back at a campaign that went to the culture-war well again and again without understanding why those messages worked in 2024. The “Kamala is for they/them, Trump is for you” ad worked because it combined public money, an unsympathetic person and something voters viewed as frivolous, all overlaid on doubts that Harris knew what she was doing. This time, Republicans just screamed that Democrats were going to transition your children. Nobody bought it. The border had already been “solved,” the Iran war never had a clear explanation, and Republicans let Democrats completely own affordability. Everybody said, “Let the man cook.” Well, the meal’s on fire, the kitchen’s on fire and everybody got burned.

This is the end of peak Trump power — the end of Trump as a cult-of-personality force capable of clearing the field and holding the party completely in line. He’ll still have a segment of the population that finds him persuasive, and Republicans will try to recobble parts of his 2024 coalition, but that version of MAGA is over. Now Democrats inherit the worst position in global politics: power. They can check Trump, force votes and attach priorities to government funding or defense authorization, but the real question is whether they fight for something effective or fight just to look like they’re fighting. They’ll call this a mandate for Democratic power. I think it was a vote against Republicans. Either way, the playtime’s over — the wide-open fight for 2028 begins now.

The polls look electric for Democrats, even if there’s a general belief that they’re overrepresenting Democratic support. Republicans seem depressed as they realize that Trump beat the party into submission, and that the coalition that won in 2024 could only be unlocked by tying themselves completely to him. MAGA Inc. has spent money and Trump has been on the road, but the war in Iran is unpopular, inflation remains a problem and the economy hasn’t been solved. Then, with Democrats gassed up to the nines, Michigan broke completely loose: Haley Stevens endorsed Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed.

El-Sayed beat Stevens in a primary that ended much closer than many people expected, and Stevens initially played the good soldier. But El-Sayed has run a campaign committed to his own point of view, even when reaching out could help him with voters who might have to hold their noses to support him. This is a common trait among the first candidates to break through from an electrified ideological movement. They’ve spent years believing the establishment strangled their momentum, so once they reach the big stage, they have a hard time shaking a hand. It’s something Trump is actually good at: he’ll scream a million nasty things while trying to win, but if the deal is the deal, he’ll shake hands afterward. El-Sayed hasn’t done that, and he’s struggled to make inroads with the Black community in Detroit and the Jewish community in the suburbs — precisely the voters for whom Stevens should’ve been a useful surrogate.

The situation boiled over after El-Sayed was asked during a debate whether Israel or Iran posed the greater danger to the United States. He called it a ridiculous hypothetical. Then Rebellion PAC aired an ad suggesting Americans couldn’t afford groceries because their money was going toward killing Palestinians, before ending with a play on Trump’s “they/them” ad. The “they” and “them” in this version weren’t pronouns — they were Israelis, Jews or Zionists, depending on how you interpreted it. Stevens saw the ad as rank antisemitism and demanded that El-Sayed denounce it. His answer was that he had nothing to do with the ad. That wasn’t good enough for her.

In another era, somebody with institutional power inside the Democratic Party would’ve removed Stevens from the situation before it reached this point. Eleanor Roosevelt would’ve put her on a one-way trip to Hawaii with a belly full of lithium and told her she could come back when permitted. It wouldn’t matter whether Stevens was right or wrong — she simply couldn’t be allowed near the race. But nobody has that power now. Stevens’ fiancé announced that he was voting for Rogers. Stevens went on CNN and said theirs was a split household but that she was still voting for El-Sayed. El-Sayed responded that she was insisting on relitigating a long-decided primary. Party elders tried to arrange a unity event, nobody could get the camps to shut up, and Stevens ultimately went to a church with Rogers instead.

The professional Democratic class is aghast because politics is a team sport. If Stevens put herself ahead of the team, then she betrayed everybody. But I’ve also heard from Never Trumpers who see her decision as proof that politics isn’t all sociopathic laundry — that people don’t have to walk blindly toward whichever candidate has the correct letter beside their name. If Stevens genuinely believes there’s an antisemitism problem inside the Democratic Party, then she shouldn’t have to stand beside El-Sayed when he won’t make even a minimal peace with her or the voters who supported her. That primary was close, and El-Sayed still needs some of those people.

I’m leaning toward this not mattering in Michigan. I still suspect El-Sayed will win, even if it’s close, and he’ll take that as a mandate to purge the Haley Stevens wing of the party. But if he loses, the stories coming out of that campaign will be like somebody turning off the containment vault in Ghostbusters — ghouls flying everywhere. This is a loser-leaves-town match now: either Stevens is finished in Democratic politics, or El-Sayed gets fired into the sun. The larger question is about coalitions. We’re in a warlord era with very little allegiance to the greater party, and “me over we” can look either righteous or cowardly depending on where you stand. If Democrats begin chasing away high-propensity Jewish voters, it may not decide this election, but over time it could put states in play that wouldn’t normally be there.

Chapters

00:00 - Intro

05:10 - Haley Stevens

30:54 - Wrap-up

As I think about my prediction, I can’t help but have Chuck Schumer on my mind. He didn’t begin the second Trump term feeling good. His party had lost the Senate, and other Democrats thought he was asleep at the wheel, part of an older generation that wasn’t going to get things done. He was forced into positions he wouldn’t otherwise have taken. He had to shut down the government twice after repeatedly destroying Republicans for doing exactly that. He’d been the adult in the room, and now, he had to righteously shake his fist in anger. That might not seem like a big deal, but senators take pride in their records. Every vote matters. Trust me — they keep track.

But even while he was embattled, Schumer hung on to probably his most defining foreign policy position: his support for Israel. He also has a long history of supporting corrective action against Iran, specifically in tandem with Israel and particularly over a buildup of missiles. Then the president ordered military strikes on Iran. That’s a tremendously unpopular position within Schumer’s party, so there’s only so much he can say publicly. But I’d have to imagine privately he wasn’t sad about it. And then a funny thing happens.

That war spiraled into a series of blockades, driving up the price of almost everything in America and sending Trump’s approval ratings through the basement. Schumer went from being chased around by his own party to getting his cake and eating it, too: a war with Iran, and he gets to run against it. It’s good to be Chuck. Suddenly Democrats are asking whether they can win Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi or South Carolina. If only a few fall their way, Schumer gets to be Senate majority leader again.

And when it comes to my prediction? I think he will.

I’ve stuck with “win in name only” this entire time. I correctly picked Trump and the Republicans in 2024, and I’ve had to be dragged toward changing my mind now. But here’s the thing: I thought we’d see the polls close as Election Day approached. I expected Republican enthusiasm, in a time as polarized as this, to pick up as voters started thinking about Supreme Court nominations and the possibility of losing Texas. I thought they’d press their voter advantage in these states. But we haven’t seen it. At a certain point, intellectual honesty requires a decision: Do I believe we’re in a polling-error cycle where everybody is wrong, or do I believe this tsunami real?

I don’t quite understand a polling environment that puts Trump below where he was after January 6th, and I don’t fully believe Texas will flip blue. But my final prediction is that Democrats will gain more than 15 House seats and win at least 51 Senate seats. Schumer becomes majority leader again. This is an eleventh-hour change of heart, but I think my blue heaven is going to happen: a Democratic Senate and a Democratic House.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:05 - Final CNN Polling

00:05:24 - Interview with Reese Gorman

00:40:43 - Economy Growth

00:42:36 - California Ballots

00:44:25 - Vivek-Acton Polling

00:47:04 - Justin’s Final Predictions

00:57:10 - Wrap-up

There weren’t many people I followed who didn’t think this was the end. Netanyahu was desperately unpopular before October 7 because of his proposed judicial reforms, he’s still facing corruption charges, and then there’s the competency question: How did October 7 happen on his watch?

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I’m not going to pretend that I’m an expert in the Knesset or Israeli coalitions, which will essentially decide who becomes prime minister. It does seem, at this hour, that Netanyahu will end his extraordinarily consequential reign at the helm of that nation — one that looked like it was over right before October 7th. I don’t know if the guy coming in will make anybody who didn’t like Netanyahu happier. The issues they seem to disagree on are more domestic issues, not what Americans who talk about Israel a lot particularly care about. He’s probably more aligned with Netanyahu on prosecuting the war in Gaza, at the very least. The question would be how far it extends into Iran and what victory against Iran would be defined as.

Still, if this is indeed the end for Bibi, it’s been a hell of a ride. I don’t know if anybody other than Ben-Gurion and Golda Meir would be more consequential leaders for that nation, but I’d leave that up to the Israeli scholars. We don’t know the outcome yet, but it does, at least right now, look like curtains for Netanyahu.

Meanwhile, President Trump has changed the list of Canadian products subject to an additional 50% tariff, with revisions taking effect Friday, October 30th. A proclamation on the 23rd removes some products from duty and adds others. Republican Susan Collins says nine exempted categories will help Maine’s blueberry, potato, apple and seaweed industries. Those categories include packaging materials, refrigeration equipment and agricultural machinery. The exemptions apply to the additional duty imposed over Canada’s treatment of American vehicles. Separate tariffs remain in place.

There’s also late-breaking reporting that negotiations are underway to try to avert some of the steel tariffs between the two countries. I’ve thought this would be brought to a brink and then eventually resolved. I tend to still think that’s the case, but we’re getting a little late in the innings to assume so.

Finally, Marco Rubio said street protests wouldn’t produce democracy in Venezuela following opposition leader María Corina Machado’s return to Caracas. Machado is demanding elections in 2027, while U.S. officials want changes to the Supreme Court and Electoral Council, along with progress on debt, before a vote. Rubio said the current authorities were meeting agreed deadlines but didn’t publicly specify an election date, warning against derailing the process.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:18 - Midterm Map Madness, Part One

00:47:52 - Update

00:48:26 - Israel’s Elections

00:51:16 - Canadian Tariffs

00:52:36 - Venezuela

00:55:00 - Midterm Map Madness, Part Two

01:39:37 - Wrap-up

In Texas, James Talarico had been consistently running three or four points ahead of Ken Paxton. The latest polls now show Paxton up one, Talarico up four, two ties and Talarico up one. I don’t know what that means, and friends don’t let friends extrapolate early-voting data. I’ve always thought this would be a toss-up, but I’m a fundamentals guy. If it’s close, Texas be Texasing, and I’d bet on the Republican.

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Politically, the strategy makes sense. Rogers needs to split Black voters in Detroit and Jewish voters in the suburbs away from the Democratic coalition. He’s trying to make El-Sayed “more Arab” and exploit tensions inside that coalition. El-Sayed clearly understands the reputation problem — he’s already running ads with his white grandparents to reassure voters. But Michigan is reportedly a Democrat-plus-11 environment, and Republicans haven’t won a Senate race there in many years.

Compare that with the attack Vivek Ramaswamy is running against Amy Acton in Ohio. His ad effectively asks voters to believe Acton’s estranged mother over her and to believe that a 12-year-old lied about being sexually assaulted. That’s supposed to prove Acton has always been a liar. It’s a deeply ugly message without the same kind of political logic behind it.

Trump endorsed the ad on Truth Social, and JD Vance defended it by saying the campaign wouldn’t have run it unless it thought the ad would work. That’s like farting and then defending the smell as proof of success. Vance went even further, trying to sell the gigantic crap on the rug as a feature of the Feng Shui.

Ramaswamy is running a bad campaign, and I don’t think he’s going to become governor of Ohio. John Husted is now in peril too, even after Sherrod Brown’s last campaign demonstrated that Ohio is a Republican state. The environment matters, but candidates can still make terrible decisions.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:45 - Mike Rogers vs. Vivek Strategies

00:13:30 - Interview with Abby Turner

00:42:11 - Update

00:44:27 - DCCC

00:45:52 - Susie Wiles

00:49:44 - Canada Tariffs

00:50:58 - Interview with Ed Tarnowski

01:20:11 - Wrap-up

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Ken Paxton was almost nonexistent. The biggest Republican billboard I saw looked like something a random person had purchased: “Democrats now support communism, and Republicans don’t.” That belongs more on your uncle’s Facebook page than a gigantic roadside billboard. I don’t know how much billboards matter, but when these campaigns and their super PACs are spending roughly half a billion dollars, it’s worth noting that one side is buying more of them.

The obvious Republican voters I met in Waco knew Paxton, had been in rooms with him, and didn’t like him. They were Cornyn voters and wished they could vote for Cornyn again. But they’re still voting for Paxton because they view Talarico as that odious. Outside Austin, people see the city as a problem and Talarico as a product of that problem. I’ve officially concluded that Paxton is running a bad campaign and deserves to lose. Based solely on his campaign, Talarico should become the next senator from Texas. I still don’t think he will.

Now for my semiannual warning: Looking at early-voting trends is bad, and only bad people do it. They don’t reliably predict final results, and partisans use them to create engagement or scare people into voting. That said, Democrats ran through the brick wall on opening day. In North Carolina, Democrats cast roughly 327,000 votes to Republicans’ 151,000. Georgia’s opening-day turnout was up 40 percent from 2022. Iowa Republicans held the majority of returned ballots, while Texas saw nearly record first-day voting. These are good signs for Democrats, but we don’t know whether they represent a continuing freight train or enthusiastic voters casting their ballots early and leaving the rest of the electorate to revert to normal patterns.

The dirty ads are also arriving. An anti-Amy Acton video raised her estrangement from her mother, allowing Acton to explain that her mother sided with a man Acton says molested her as a child. That seems like an extraordinary gift to Acton. In Maine, an ad against Troy Jackson includes the lyric, “If he’ll F his own family, he’ll F yours too.” In Texas, an ad attacks Brandon Herrera — the “AK Guy” — for demonstrating weapons connected to high-profile crimes, including the Uvalde shooting in the district he wants to represent. This is playoff-caliber filth.

Then there’s the apparent sequel to the unsolicited Texas text messages promoting transgender healthcare. A new flyer presents itself as trans advocacy, directs minors toward legal organizations and out-of-state care information, and advertises events around Texas. I have no idea whether any of it is authentic. But in 2024, we saw one organization run opposing messages on Israel to shake up a race, and that effort was eventually traced to Elon Musk. This is only an unqualified guess — a feeling-the-Force thing — but I suspect America PAC, or a group funded by it, may be behind these messages.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:59 - Waco

00:09:22 - Early Election Results

00:13:40 - Crazy Midterm Ads

00:22:57 - Andrew Heaton on Libertarians

00:58:48 - Update

00:59:44 - Ukraine

01:03:09 - Republicans’ Red Wall Defense

01:06:45 - Supreme Court and Distilling

01:07:58 - Laurence Leamer on JFK’s Mistresses

01:32:34 - Wrap-up

Both men knew Paxton and had been in a room with him. Neither was impressed. Both had voted for Cornyn, understood why he lost MAGA support, and wished they could vote for him in November. But would they stay home or vote for James Talarico? Absolutely not. They’re voting for Paxton. These aren’t the swingiest voters in Texas, but if people with personal animus toward Paxton still don’t view him as a moral stay-away, that makes me feel worse about Talarico’s chances.

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Texans have begun receiving messages that say, “Questions about gender-affirming care in Texas? Start here. You can get the care you need,” followed by a link to the Transgender Education Network of Texas. That sounds like something a transgender advocacy organization might send. The problem is that TENT says it didn’t write, authorize, approve, or distribute the messages. The organization says it has received hate and threats, and it has sent cease-and-desist notices to two messaging companies while demanding to know who hired them. Republican State Representative Jeff Leach has asked Attorney General Ken Paxton to investigate.

It seems pretty clear what somebody is trying to accomplish. Paxton needs every possible Republican to come home, hold their nose, and vote for him because the issues at stake are supposedly bigger than their dislike of Ken Paxton. I don’t know whether it’ll work, and we don’t yet know who paid for it, but this trick is dirty as hell. Trump is already preparing an explanation for a Paxton loss, naming John Cornyn and Karl Rove as the people he’ll blame. Meanwhile, Talarico just gave an extended television performance without any of the fogginess his critics had insinuated. He aced it 11 out of 10.

A Reuters survey also asked 26 Senate campaigns whether they would accept November’s results unconditionally. Fourteen said yes: nine Democrats, one independent, and four Republicans. Both major candidates in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and New Hampshire agreed. Neither Talarico nor Paxton responded in Texas. This used to be simple. An agreed-upon arbiter called the race, the candidates spoke, and somebody conceded. Now we have little trust in the system and even less interest in rebuilding it. From Trump to Stacey Abrams and everybody in between, candidates who refuse to believe they lost should be shamed. You lost. You’re a loser. Run again and maybe you’ll become a winner.

The Justice Department has demanded that California segregate ballots belonging to people federal officials suspect aren’t citizens. California Secretary of State Shirley Weber says her office received no list and was given 48 hours to investigate. Los Angeles election officials received a password-protected thumb drive but hadn’t accessed it because of security protocols, and the Justice Department didn’t say how many people were involved. California disputes the demand’s legal basis and says being flagged doesn’t prove someone is ineligible or voted illegally. This connects directly to the collapse in trust: Trump’s side assumes California permits rampant illegal voting, while liberals have no incentive to treat anything from his administration seriously.

Finally, Social Security benefits will rise 3.6 percent in 2027, adding an average of $75 per month to retirement benefits. Nearly 72 million beneficiaries will receive the increase beginning in January, while higher payments for roughly 7.3 million Supplemental Security Income recipients begin December 31. The adjustment is calculated under federal law using an inflation index for urban wage earners and clerical workers. So if you’re looking for good news from inflation, at least Social Security recipients are getting more money.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:19 - Texas Dirty Trick

00:10:28 - Interview with Karol Markowicz

00:51:36 - Update

00:54:10 - Accepting Election Results

00:55:48 - California Ballots

00:57:37 - Social Security

00:58:49 - Interview with Katie Harbath

01:42:29 - Wrap-up

North Carolina has broken away entirely. A new poll has Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley 54–40. Turn out the lights. Over. Done. Finito. I don’t think any Democrat will beat a Republican in North Carolina by 14 points, and I expect the final margin to be closer. But a five-point Democratic victory there would still be the blowout of all blowouts. I once believed this race would be close, but I didn’t expect a war with Iran, and now things are much, much different.

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Marshall is a throwback religious conservative from the pre-Trump era who’s plugged himself into the MAGA universe through faith-and-family politics. He has the votes you’d expect, including a controversial one involving January 6. Hamilton is a centrist Democrat who founded his own church in 1990 with four people in a borrowed space. He’s using that religious background and his charisma as a leader of men to say, “I’m not asking you to vote for a Democrat. I’m asking you to vote for common sense.”

Hamilton wants congressional approval for tariffs, more agricultural export promotion, and year-round guest-worker visas. Those positions push directly against Trump’s tariffs and hard-line immigration policies. Marshall, meanwhile, has to defend Trump during what’s being called “Farmageddon.” Diesel prices can only stay this high for so long. Restrictions on selling crops can only remain this punitive before farmers go crazy.

Marshall’s medical career has also become a liability. An investigation found that he sued more than 700 patients over unpaid medical debt, and court records showed 81 arrests after people missed court appearances connected to those cases. His side says the collections were necessary to sustain medical care and that nobody was criminally convicted simply for being unable to pay. But Hamilton has an effective ad featuring a woman who says she was arrested while eight months pregnant after missing a payment. “I’m a doctor” is usually a good political pitch. Marshall found a way to make it a negative.

This isn’t simply the national environment. Republicans face similar problems with farmers, diesel, and tariffs in Iowa, but Ashley Hinson is still leading her Democratic opponent and running ahead of the Republican gubernatorial candidate. Kansas is the combination of a bad environment and an incumbent who’s never been tested suddenly finding himself in the race of his life. The cavalry is arriving: Marshall has hired Chris Grant of Big Dog Strategies, and the Senate Leadership Fund is bringing in nearly $8.2 million, possibly redirected from Georgia and North Carolina. My gut says Kansas is much closer than it should be but doesn’t tip. Raw political gravity and the Republican registration advantage probably carry Marshall through. Maybe.

The broader Republican strategy is now triage. Two Republican super PACs are withdrawing support from Tom Kean Jr. and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, leaving both incumbents without the air cover they expected. Republicans aren’t trying to flip Democratic seats anymore; they’re defending their own and attempting to minimize the losses. Trump is even heading to Wasilla to campaign for Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola. Second-term presidents aren’t usually eager to do a full-court press, let alone fly to Alaska. Trump deserves credit for doing the work, but the fact that he’s campaigning in red states tells you where Republican priorities are. They’re no longer on offense.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:45 - James Talarico

00:13:09 - Kimberly Guilfoyle

00:14:24 - Kansas Senate Race

00:25:30 - Update

00:26:22 - Republican Super PACs

00:27:25 - Trump Heads to Alaska

00:29:58 - DOGE

00:31:02 - Interview with Ryan McBeth

Republicans can point to low unemployment, a rising stock market, healthy retirement accounts, or the possibility of a golden age in manufacturing and software development. None of it matters. Ask the Biden administration. People want to know why groceries cost more, why diesel costs more, and why they’re spending more on everyday necessities. That’s it. That’s the entire game. Republicans could try to explain why the war with Iran was necessary, but nobody has done that.

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Michigan is essentially tied. Four recent polls have Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers by one or two points, while a smaller survey put El-Sayed ahead by five. I’m inclined to throw that smaller poll out. El-Sayed also appears to be distancing himself from Hasan Piker after campaigning with him during the primary. If he’s trying to get away from that association now, somebody internally is showing him scary numbers. My verdict: Michigan is tightening — like two hands coming together on a first date.

Georgia and North Carolina are going the other way. Jon Ossoff leads by eight to 10 points in three recent Georgia polls. That race is wider than the Grand Canyon and only getting wider. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper leads by five to 12 points, and Michael Whatley has temporarily pulled his television ads. His campaign says it’s merely adjusting whom it targets before making a late push. I say: liar, liar, pants on fire. That race is wider than a waistband on Thanksgiving, with more green-bean casserole still coming.

Texas is telling two different stories. Large polls have James Talarico ahead by six, while others show him leading by only one or two. My gut, living here, is that this race isn’t as tight as Beto O’Rourke versus Ted Cruz. Talarico is popular, but he isn’t a cult figure, and winning statewide as a Democrat would be historic. On the other hand, Ken Paxton is a lump of dirty clothes with the charisma of a wooden spoon. So is Texas tightening or widening? I don’t know. It might be staying the same while being pulled equally in opposite directions.

Kansas is unquestionably tightening. Recent polls range from Democrat Hamilton leading by three to Republican Roger Marshall leading by one, with another showing a tie. An earlier poll had Marshall ahead by five. If you start at Marshall plus five and end at Hamilton plus three, there’s only one way to describe that: tighter than new underwear. It’s all bunching up in there.

The big picture is ugly for Republicans. They’re effectively giving up on Georgia and North Carolina while betting their hopes on Michigan. Candidate quality matters — Ossoff has become a feared candidate, Cooper has won statewide, and Rogers is strong enough that he might lead in a better environment. But the environment isn’t better. Republicans have very few bright spots: races are tightening where they shouldn’t be, and they’re widening in places where Republicans desperately need them to stop stretching.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:18 - Widening and Tightening

00:20:55 - Update/Marco Rubio in Greece

00:25:58 - Microsoft H1B

00:28:36 - Iran

00:32:13 - Interview with Dave Levinthal

01:10:52 - Wrap-up

The money includes $18 million against Don Davis, $15.5 million against Kathy Castor, and $10 million against Marcy Kaptur. These are advertising expenditures during the reporting window, not everything being spent on the campaigns. Redistricting this aggressively is high risk, high reward because you don’t know where the votes will fall. Republicans expected the national environment to be unfavorable. It’s now bad — see war, comma, Iran — and House races tend to reflect that environment unless a candidate has an unusually strong connection to the district.

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My hypothesis is that polling is simply getting worse. It’s harder to reach people, fewer people are willing to participate, and the public averages are increasingly flooded with internal polling or something that looks like it. An interest group aligned with a candidate releases a poll, it enters the bloodstream, and it shifts the aggregate. At the same time, reputable pollsters may be overcorrecting based on whom they missed in the previous presidential election.

I took five of the most competitive Senate races from 2014, 2018, and 2022 and compared the final RealClearPolitics averages with the actual results. In 2014, the average error across those races was 2.31 points. North Carolina polling had Democrat Kay Hagan ahead of Thom Tillis by 0.7, but Tillis won by roughly 1.5. The biggest miss came in Iowa, where Joni Ernst was expected to win by 2.3 and instead won by six.

The misses got worse in 2018, when the average error reached about 4.5 points. Polling had Rick Scott losing in Florida, Martha McSally beating Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona, Claire McCaskill and Josh Hawley essentially tied in Missouri, and a Democrat winning in Indiana. Hawley and the Indiana Republican both won by nearly six points, while Democrat Jacky Rosen won Nevada by five. When those polls missed, they missed horrendously.

In 2022, the average error across the five races was 3.92 points. Polling had Pennsylvania essentially tied, with Mehmet Oz slightly ahead, before John Fetterman won by about five. It had Herschel Walker beating Raphael Warnock, who ultimately won the race, and Adam Laxalt leading Catherine Cortez Masto by 3.5 points in Nevada before Cortez Masto won by nearly one. These weren’t all misses in the same partisan direction.

The polling right now unquestionably shows a blue wave. To believe otherwise, you have to convince yourself that unreachable rural Republicans will come home even though they don’t want to talk to pollsters. I’m skeptical of rosy Democratic numbers in deep-red states like Iowa and Kansas, but in Ohio, Michigan, and perhaps Pennsylvania, the polls may actually be undercounting Democratic support. A three- or four-point miss is entirely plausible and would change many of these races. The problem for anyone relying on that possibility is that there’s no guarantee which way the miss goes.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:48 - Polling

00:15:11 - Update

00:16:00 - Trump Ads

00:18:28 - Midterm Spending

00:20:31 - Supreme Court Climate Change

00:22:57 - Interview with JD Durkin

00:57:45 - Wrap-up

Trump doesn’t want to acknowledge that Iran has leverage over American gas prices. He could say Iran was weak, its neighbors wanted the United States to push it over the edge, and this is what doing that cheaply looks like. He could say Iran is trying to hurt Republicans in the midterms because Democrats would do its bidding. Whether or not that’s true, that’s how you’d sell it. Instead, the administration is stuck in a weird middle ground where Hassett has to keep saying things are good.

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