We’re less than a month from Election Day, which means this is when polls should begin to move. The money has been spent, the persuasion is out there, and the surrogates have said what they’re going to say. A race sitting at five or six points needs to move toward three or two if it’s going to become competitive. Otherwise, it starts widening to the point where we can call it done.
Michigan is essentially tied. Four recent polls have Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers by one or two points, while a smaller survey put El-Sayed ahead by five. I’m inclined to throw that smaller poll out. El-Sayed also appears to be distancing himself from Hasan Piker after campaigning with him during the primary. If he’s trying to get away from that association now, somebody internally is showing him scary numbers. My verdict: Michigan is tightening — like two hands coming together on a first date.
Georgia and North Carolina are going the other way. Jon Ossoff leads by eight to 10 points in three recent Georgia polls. That race is wider than the Grand Canyon and only getting wider. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper leads by five to 12 points, and Michael Whatley has temporarily pulled his television ads. His campaign says it’s merely adjusting whom it targets before making a late push. I say: liar, liar, pants on fire. That race is wider than a waistband on Thanksgiving, with more green-bean casserole still coming.
Texas is telling two different stories. Large polls have James Talarico ahead by six, while others show him leading by only one or two. My gut, living here, is that this race isn’t as tight as Beto O’Rourke versus Ted Cruz. Talarico is popular, but he isn’t a cult figure, and winning statewide as a Democrat would be historic. On the other hand, Ken Paxton is a lump of dirty clothes with the charisma of a wooden spoon. So is Texas tightening or widening? I don’t know. It might be staying the same while being pulled equally in opposite directions.
Kansas is unquestionably tightening. Recent polls range from Democrat Hamilton leading by three to Republican Roger Marshall leading by one, with another showing a tie. An earlier poll had Marshall ahead by five. If you start at Marshall plus five and end at Hamilton plus three, there’s only one way to describe that: tighter than new underwear. It’s all bunching up in there.
The big picture is ugly for Republicans. They’re effectively giving up on Georgia and North Carolina while betting their hopes on Michigan. Candidate quality matters — Ossoff has become a feared candidate, Cooper has won statewide, and Rogers is strong enough that he might lead in a better environment. But the environment isn’t better. Republicans have very few bright spots: races are tightening where they shouldn’t be, and they’re widening in places where Republicans desperately need them to stop stretching.
Chapters
00:00:00 - Intro
00:04:18 - Widening and Tightening
00:20:55 - Update/Marco Rubio in Greece
00:25:58 - Microsoft H1B
00:28:36 - Iran
00:32:13 - Interview with Dave Levinthal
01:10:52 - Wrap-up
