Battle of the Belts: Will the Rust Belt and Sun Belt Diverge In November?
The difference in ticket splitting between Senate and Governor
Tom Emmer will play Tim Walz during JD Vance’s debate prep
No one has given Democrats more heart trouble this cycle than the New York Times / Siena College poll.
The Nate Cohn-run outfit is lauded as the gold standard of polling. It is methodologically rigorous and has enough money to stay in the field long enough for durable results. When it began ringing alarm bells for Biden’s chances, Democrats listened. Nate Silver wrote more about this yesterday.
Last week, the Old Gray Lady delivered good news for Harris ‘24, it showed her up 4% in the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania. And there was much rejoicing. Of course it also showed the race tied nationally, which is puzzling since Pennsylvania has historically voted to the right of the national average. But still, you’d rather have a 4% NYT lead in PA than not.
Monday, the news wasn’t so good. The Sun Belt very much looks like it did during Biden’s dying days in the race. Trump up across the board in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
If that holds, it means for all the noise around the Summer Switch-a-roo... Harris is exactly where Biden was: relying on the Rust Belt to deliver a path to the White House.
Why does that matter?
Because in both previous Trump runs for the office, the Rust Belt and Sun Belt have largely voted together. Specifically: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Georgia voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
Does this mean anything? Maybe not. The margins in all of those states were miniscule. Any and all of them could have gone either way in both contests. But, they didn’t.
If the New York Times / Siena is the oracle it is treated as then Kamala Harris will have to break that trend.
Mark Robinson can’t prove he didn’t frequent pornographic message boards
Mark Robinson is Robins-done.
The North Carolina gubernatorial candidate was already running over 10 points behind Donald Trump in the Tarheel State. He’s prone to sticking his foot in his mouth and that was before CNN revealed a history of posting on a message board entitled Nude Africa about hating Martin Luther King Jr., opinions on the jews, his enjoyment of transexual pornography and more. Now he is facing calls from his own party to prove the posts weren’t from him. He can’t.
We have an email about ticket splitting right below this, so let me leave you with a fun anecdote. In a bygone era I used to run a magic blog (“Ta da!” not “the Gathering”) which was widely read in the industry. The comments section often got spicy and there was one poster who seemed to be particularly cross. One might say devilish. What fewer knew about in the late aughts is that every comment came with an IP address which I traced back to the fancy neighborhood where a famous television magician lived. The same famous television magician the commenter would furiously defend any time his name was impugned.
Fun times.
Sean the Dad:
Scott Klug: “there's not going to be ticket splitting”
Jurbs: “Yeah, I see that”
Also Jurbs: “no reverse coat tails, whatever the person at the top gets will roll on down the ballot”
So Trump will cause a reversal of 10% over Mark Robinson or is there going to be significant ticket splitting?
In defense of our friend and former congressman Scott Klug (R-WI) the ticket splitting he was referring to is in the Senate which in the last two cycles hasn’t happened much. But that was not always the case!
Let’s look back to 2012 which pit Mitt Romney against an incumbent Obama…
2012 Presidential Election Year
President and Senate Ticket Splitting: 6 instances
Indiana: Republican for President, Democrat for Senate
Missouri: Republican for President, Democrat for Senate
Montana: Republican for President, Democrat for Senate
Nevada: Democrat for President, Republican for Senate
North Dakota: Republican for President, Democrat for Senate
West Virginia: Republican for President, Democrat for Senate
President and Governor Ticket Splitting: 3 instances
Missouri: Republican for President, Democrat for Governor
Montana: Republican for President, Democrat for Governor
West Virginia: Republican for President, Democrat for Governor
Red states split their tickets for Senate five times and Nevada served as the only blue state to do so. Still, six instances compared to three red states that elected Democrat governors.
Since then, voters have become very polarized. Compare 2012 with the last two cycles.
2016 Presidential Election Year
President and Senate Ticket Splitting: 0 instances
President and Governor Ticket Splitting: 5 instances
Montana: Republican for President, Democrat for Governor
New Hampshire: Democrat for President, Republican for Governor
North Carolina: Republican for President, Democrat for Governor
Vermont: Democrat for President, Republican for Governor
West Virginia: Republican for President, Democrat for Governor
2020 Presidential Election Year
President and Senate Ticket Splitting: 1 instance
Maine: Democrat for President, Republican for Senate
President and Governor Ticket Splitting: 3 instances
New Hampshire: Democrat for President, Republican for Governor
North Carolina: Republican for President, Democrat for Governor
Vermont: Democrat for President, Republican for Governor
A grand total of one split ticket Senator: Susan Collins in Maine. Meanwhile, four red states and four blue states split their ticket for governor. Although that one is a little tricky since Jim Justice won the governorship of wild and wonderful West Virginia in 2016 only to switch parties. He and his DUMP TRUCK of a dog will likely be part of the reason the GOP will take the Senate this cycle.
So to answer your question, YES ticket splitting is a lot more common for governor over the last two cycles. NO that hasn’t translated to the Senate.
Mark Robinson is toast.