Donald Trump’s marquee legislative push — the “one big, beautiful bill” — is stuck. Republicans are spinning optimism, talking about markups and momentum, but the reality is messier. There’s no markup scheduled. Deep divisions remain. The White House says this bill will eliminate taxes on tips, Social Security, and overtime — a massive promise. But internal GOP talks are focused on scaling the package back from $4.5 trillion in cuts to $4 trillion. That’s not “beautiful.” That’s triage.
The real fracture point is SALT — state and local tax deductions. Republicans in blue states, especially New York, want them back. They swallowed the loss during Trump’s first term on the promise that it would come around next time. Now they’re saying, “no SALT, no vote.” But red-state Republicans hate SALT. To them, it’s a giveaway to blue states that should be solving their own tax problems at home. It's one of the starkest internal contradictions in the GOP: populist messaging vs. donor-class priorities.
I asked someone close to this process, “Gun to your head — when does it pass?” Their answer: “I’ll take the bullet.” That’s where we are. But the truth is, this bill has to pass. For all the infighting, there is no alternative. Republicans can’t walk into 2026 with nothing to show. Someone’s going to get rolled. It’s just a matter of who.
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