Tuesday’s unexpected two-week ceasefire with Iran was announced with a lot of weight behind it, positioned as a major step toward deescalation, and almost immediately there were signs that it… was not holding. There were continued strikes in the region, disagreements over what was actually included in the deal, and a general sense that not everyone involved is operating from the same understanding.
The biggest question for me is whether anyone inside Iran actually has full control over the situation. It’s one thing for leadership to agree to a ceasefire, but it’s another thing entirely for that agreement to be enforced across different factions, especially those with direct control over missiles and military operations. There is a tendency to assume that a deal means a switch gets flipped, but this feels much more fragmented than that.
