We are now more than a week into the conflict with Iran, and the situation remains volatile. The opening phase of the war was defined by dramatic strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and damaged key elements of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Early reporting suggests that Operation Midnight Hammer succeeded in destroying centrifuges and burying enriched uranium under collapsed facilities, effectively disabling the country’s nuclear program for the foreseeable future.
But decapitating leadership is not the same thing as ending a regime. Iran’s government, fractured though it may be, is still intact. A council of clerics is reportedly attempting to select a new supreme leader, while competing factions inside the regime continue to operate. At the same time, Iranian forces have continued launching missiles across the region, striking targets in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and even sending a projectile toward Turkey.
That contradiction — political disarray paired with continued military aggression — captures the central uncertainty of the conflict. The regime is weakened but not gone. And that leaves open the question of what the United States actually considers victory.
