I’ve got a bad feeling about the South Carolina runoff for Darlene Graham. Lindsey Graham’s sister led the first round with roughly 32 percent but now faces Representative Ralph Norman. Trump encouraged her to run, endorsed her before she formally entered, campaigned with her in Myrtle Beach, and held a runoff-eve tele-rally. MAGA Inc. spent $827,000 on last-day calls and texts supporting her. Norman is a longtime officeholder with a hardline conservative record who backed Trump but committed the unforgivable sin of endorsing Nikki Haley in 2024.
The problem is that Darlene has run an objectively bad campaign, even though the campaign she needed wasn’t difficult. Make it all about Lindsey. South Carolina Republicans had already chosen him, and nobody knew him like his sister. She could’ve presented herself as a caretaker working with his staff to finish the agenda he spent his life building. Every sentence should’ve begun or ended with “Lindsey told me” or “This is what Lindsey would’ve wanted.” Erase the Darlene.
Instead, she’s tried to establish the Darlene show. She’s drawn distinctions between Lindsey’s foreign-policy focus and her domestic priorities, but if she’s going to be anything other than Lindsey’s caretaker, voters don’t know her. That choice also makes every piece of her own record fair game. Then she delivered one of the biggest gaffes of the midterms when Greta Van Susteren gave her a question about China and she absolutely gagged on it. You’ve got to know “China bad.” It’s a two-word answer. She hasn’t done good; she’s done bad.
This is also a low, low, low, low, low-turnout runoff. Dozens of people are going to vote, and the people who show up in elections like this are usually the most energized. The most energized South Carolina Republicans aren’t necessarily Lindsey Graham voters. Many of them are the people who hated Lindsey Graham and wanted a more purebred MAGA senator. Darlene has the Graham name, but the name was already controversial within the party. Her hedge is Trump. The question is whether Trump can still get those voters out.
Trump’s average approval is 39.5 percent, with 57.2 percent disapproving. Stinky, bad, awful. If you’re in the low 40s, it’s bad. If you’re in the high 30s, it’s terrible. Darlene says she’s focused on domestic policy, the economy, and kitchen-table issues, but Trump’s economic numbers are even worse: 35.9 percent approve and 60.9 percent disapprove. That’s a 25-point spread. Donald Trump has been the wind beneath her wings, but I don’t know what kind of draft that endorsement creates anymore, even in deep-red South Carolina.
MAGA Inc. has $404 million on hand but spent only $2.3 million through July before dumping nearly $1 million into this runoff at the last minute. A huge cash advantage works best when you define people early, not when you wait until the final days. The energy and the issues are with Democrats, while two supposed Republican advantages — money and redistricting — don’t look like advantages right now. If Trump’s endorsement and a last-minute MAGA Inc. spending spree can’t save Lindsey Graham’s sister in South Carolina, that’s a bad sign for Republicans far beyond this runoff.
Chapters
00:00:00 - Intro
00:04:17 - College Sports Bill
00:08:01 - Darlene Graham
00:25:20 - Canada
00:30:45 - Iran
00:34:18 - Mail-in Voting
00:37:57 - Interview with Eric Geller
01:09:00 - Wrap-up
