New Hampshire has its heavyweight Senate matchup: Democrat Chris Pappas against Republican John Sununu. Pappas won his primary by more than 30 points, while Sununu easily dispatched former Massachusetts senator Scott Brown. Democrats cast 141,095 votes to Republicans’ 99,307, another sign that the Democratic base is fired up and willing to participate before the vote really, really counts. But New Hampshire is an odd place where unaffiliated voters are the story, and Republicans outvoting Democrats in the 2022 primary didn’t help them in November.
The question is whether unaffiliated voters have a reason to vote Republican — and whether the Sununu name is enough. I’d still consider a Sununu victory a major upset, although some polling has him within the margin of error or leading Pappas. If Republicans win New Hampshire and Mike Rogers wins Michigan, My Blue Heaven is over. Democrats can’t take the Senate while losing those two races.
