Only an inch away...

Thoughts on an assassination that wasn't

Donald Trump came only an inch away from having his head blown off.

CNN and Fox News were covering Trump’s rally live when the assassin pulled the trigger. I know because I was watching. Had the bullet been only an inch away, the gruesome images from the most talented political photographers in the world would have been immediately disseminated via social media. The caved-in skull of Donald Trump would iconography recorded in 4K and broadcast worldwide in real time.

It would have triggered a period of democratic instability unlike anything I’ve experienced in my lifetime. A large portion of the country would believe that the sitting president killed his predecessor out of fear of losing power in a democratic election. The American Experiment would endure a long period of chaos from which we would likely survive, but be forever changed by.

All of that, only an inch away.

Instead, we have this: a dark moment of reflection and conspiracy that thankfully flits through our national conversation. Without the dire counterweight of a president’s corpse, it will come and go.

I am very thankful we live in this splinter reality and not the one only an inch away.

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The central question around the 20-year-old shooter Thomas Crooks of Bethel Park, PA is why?

Fragments of information surface as our collective pattern-matching brains put together an idea that makes sense to us. He was a registered Republican but never voted. He donated $15 to a PAC supporting Joe Biden on his inauguration day. He wore a t-shirt of a gun-centric YouTube channel.

Motives of political assassins, attempted and successful, tend to be scattered by nature. But there is one thing I can say with certainty: it will almost certainly be an awkward fit for what you believe or what your political foes believe.

Mainstream political thought is not only a moving target but also a conglomeration of thousands of voices. By its nature, it moderates through all of them, protecting itself from vulnerabilities. Even the irony-enhanced edgelord factions of our political movements tend to back away from radical, violent deviancy.

Yes, there will be a community online that totally agrees with the motivations and actions of Crooks. But this is a reflection of the internet being thousands of proverbial monkeys typing on keyboards until every conceivable position is fleshed out.

Crook’s motivations are just as likely to be something as frivolous as being banned from a VTuber chat room as they are anything resembling mainstream conversations around political rhetoric and violence.

I would caution anyone reading this to let the information about his motivations play itself out.

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The political ramifications of the assassination attempt are less than 24 hours old.

• It will be nearly impossible for Biden to ramp up his attacks on Trump as hot as they were before now without pushback from the Republicans, who will argue that they risk stoking more violence. This further alienates Biden as the “safe” option to Trump’s “selfish chaos.” The Biden team needs to find a policy prescription that can unite their base.

• Republicans will be united around Trump like never before. I would not be shocked to see some Never Trump personalities and voices declare support with the goal of trying to turn down the national temperature.

• Donald Trump’s RNC nomination acceptance speech (which could be his first public words since the incident) will be the most-watched political address of all time.

• There is a scandal surrounding the Secret Service. Not only how they could allow a gunman on top of a roof in firing range of the president but also how protected Trump is. Rumors swirled on social media Saturday that the Trump campaign requested more protection from the Department of Homeland Security and was turned down. If that is the case, Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas (already a controversial figure for his handling of the southern border) will have more questions to answer.

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PX3 This Week

I went live to process the news 20 minutes after the bullets were fired yesterday. You can watch the two-hour livestream here.

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Tomorrow morning I am off to Milwaukee for the Republican National Convention. A strange moment to be credentialed for history.

Friday, July 19th I am joined by Andrew Heaton and Jen Briney at the Skylight Musical Theater for a live episode of We’re Not Wrong. We will be hanging out afterward as always. Please consider attending. Community matters.