The latest polling offers very little reassurance for Republicans as early voting begins. In Iowa, a new YouGov poll has Democrat Josh Turek leading Ashley Hinson 47–46. Smart people following that race still talk about Hinson as the likely winner, and she’s running ahead of the Republican candidate for governor, but you’d still like to see her leading. It’d be a little more reassuring.
North Carolina has broken away entirely. A new poll has Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley 54–40. Turn out the lights. Over. Done. Finito. I don’t think any Democrat will beat a Republican in North Carolina by 14 points, and I expect the final margin to be closer. But a five-point Democratic victory there would still be the blowout of all blowouts. I once believed this race would be close, but I didn’t expect a war with Iran, and now things are much, much different.
