Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting campaign has become an expensive bet. Republican candidates and super PACs have spent nearly $100 million since September 1 trying to win nine redrawn districts that Trump carried by nine to 14 points in 2024. I’ll say that again: $100 million in a month and change to defend nine districts they drew themselves. Of the 14 new Republican-leaning seats, only five are currently viewed as likely pickups. This is where the line between gerrymander and dummymander gets blurry.
The money includes $18 million against Don Davis, $15.5 million against Kathy Castor, and $10 million against Marcy Kaptur. These are advertising expenditures during the reporting window, not everything being spent on the campaigns. Redistricting this aggressively is high risk, high reward because you don’t know where the votes will fall. Republicans expected the national environment to be unfavorable. It’s now bad — see war, comma, Iran — and House races tend to reflect that environment unless a candidate has an unusually strong connection to the district.
