For the past two weeks, the Strait of Hormuz has been treated as the most dangerous flashpoint in the conflict between the United States and Iran. Nearly a quarter of global oil shipments pass through that narrow waterway, which means any disruption immediately drives up global energy prices.
But a recent interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi introduced a confusing new signal. According to Arachi, Iran has not formally closed the strait. Instead, Tehran claims it is allowing ships from many countries to pass safely while effectively restricting U.S. and Israeli vessels.
If that claim is accurate, it represents a significant shift in strategy. The regime’s strongest economic weapon against the United States has always been the threat of completely shutting down Hormuz and sending oil prices soaring high enough to trigger a global recession. That scenario could force political pressure on Washington to end the war.
