The midterms will definitively fall into one of three scenarios. Republicans began this Congress with a 220–215 House majority and hold the Senate 53–47. The environment is brutal for them: Trump’s approval is at 33 percent, 70 percent disapprove of his handling of inflation and the cost of living, and the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is getting close to eight points. But Republicans have a big money advantage, and the Senate map still requires almost everything to go right for Democrats.
Scenario one is Ah, Nevertheless: Republicans retain both the House and Senate. They can lose two House seats and still hold 218, and a few candidate-specific wins, redrawn districts, or polling errors could get them there. The Senate is already a hard climb for Democrats, and all Trump has done his entire career is surprise people. But pretty much everything argues against this. The president’s party usually loses seats in the midterms, Trump’s approval and cost-of-living numbers stink on ice, and the battlefield is expanding into Republican territory. If the GOP holds both chambers, the story won’t be that Trump beat the odds. It’ll be that he is the odds. You don’t bet against Big Donny T.
Scenario two is WINO — Win in Name Only: Democrats win the House by fewer than 10 seats while Republicans retain the Senate. This is, in my view, the most likely scenario as of August. Democrats get Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, control of the legislative agenda, committee gavels, subpoena power, and the ability to impeach by a simple majority. But with a tiny margin, every ideological bloc becomes a potential veto point. A handful of members could threaten Jeffries’ speakership or stop legislation, and impeachment would be ceremonial without the Senate. Republicans keep the brake pedal while their senators become less Trump-aligned as his duck gets lamer. Democrats win the gavel, Republicans keep the brake pedal, and Jeffries ultimately pays the bill.
Scenario three is My Blue Heaven: Democrats win the House by more than 10 seats and take the Senate, giving them at least 223 House seats and 51 Democratic-aligned senators. Trump’s approval would need to remain in the low-to-mid-30s, affordability would need to dominate, and Democratic enthusiasm would have to survive the transition from the primaries to November. Progressives and the establishment would need to mend their fences and say, “Onward, onward, onward.” The Senate table would have to be almost entirely clean, including pickups in Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, plus a Michigan hold with Abdul El-Sayed.
Ah, Nevertheless would mean Trump wriggled out of it yet again and avoided impeachment. WINO would produce a loud, hectic Democratic House that can investigate and pass bills but can’t get much through the Senate. My Blue Heaven would give Democrats control of both chambers, allowing them to send legislation to Trump, multiply the investigations, and begin asking whether they have the votes to eliminate the filibuster.
Those are the three paths in front of us: Republicans hold, the parties split power narrowly, or Democrats get their deliverance. It’s a multi-versal ride that will only get clearer as we approach November.
Chapters
00:00:00 - Intro
00:04:19 - Midterms Scenarios Revealed
00:23:35 - Bernie Endorses Angie Nixon
00:27:43 - National Debt
00:31:01 - Iran
00:35:16 - Kirk Bado on the Midterms
01:06:41 - Wrap-up
