Republicans are now arguing that their aggressive mid-decade redistricting campaign could preserve their House majority even in an environment where history is usually not on their side. According to a new memo from the National Republican Congressional Committee, newly redrawn maps have reduced the number of competitive districts and forced Democrats to compete in more Republican-leaning territory. Democrats dismiss that analysis, arguing that strong special election results and voter dissatisfaction with President Trump still favor a House takeover. My gut is still that Democrats will take the House. I do think it’s going to be closer than people think, if just because we’re in an intensely polarized country.
Republicans are still looking for the why. That’s what they haven’t found yet. Why am I excited? Historically, at least in the Trump administration, it has been things like immigration. But you can’t run the next election on the thing you solved in the last election. I know there are a lot of frustrated conservatives who say we should be talking about the fact that we closed the border. What have you done for me lately? That is the refrain from voters. Republicans are going to gin up the culture war, and they’re going to point at Democrats and say they’ve learned none of their lessons. Turning the keys back over to them is not going to get you anything. It’s going to get you more impeachments, more nonsense, and less of what you want. Democrats, meanwhile, will say we have an out-of-control oligarch president and we need some kind of emergency brake, so give us back control of the House.
With gas prices continuing to fall, it’s not crazy to think Republicans could find some footing. The national average fell below four dollars, according to AAA. A month ago it was around $4.50. We are looking at a collapsing gas price. We have been told throughout the history of commodities that gas shoots up like a rocket and falls like a feather. We are seeing it fall pretty quickly. If the price of a barrel returns to the levels we saw before the war, now that the memorandum of understanding has been signed and there is free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, you’re going to see lower gas prices. That’s usually what people rely on, and it’s also the hedge against inflation.
Cheap gas had always been the Trump administration’s hedge against tariff inflation. The argument was that while you might pay more on imports, gas would remain extraordinarily low. Obviously that promise was broken with the Iran war. Now it seems that we are at least in some phase of calm and negotiation, a controversial one. My point of view on any American activity in the Middle East—some may even say adventure in the Middle East—is that it almost always ends with America having to tell Israel no. Israel is usually very excited about having us in the region because, in general, we agree with Israel on most everything that happens in the Middle East. But they will always want us to do more, and eventually we usually have to tell them we are not going to do everything they want. That is just the way I understand the region.
Is this memorandum of understanding wise? I read the text that was released yesterday. It’s a pretty big give to allow Iran to sell oil. It’s going to help the gas price, but it is a pretty big give. The carrots we are offering are big and juicy, but they are not promised up front. Everything is contingent on what happens from here. For Republicans, the best-case scenario is relative economic calm and Donald Trump being seen as a game-changing president that people might not always agree with but who is moving things forward. If we’re talking about jobs numbers and things that are forward-facing, Republicans are probably winning the argument. If we’re talking about side issues and distractions, Democrats are winning the argument. I still think it’s going to be very, very, very hard for Republicans to keep the House. But again, this is a very polarized country, and the biggest thing Republicans need is a reason to get their people excited.
Chapters
00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:57 - Republicans and the House
00:12:19 - Obama
00:15:51 - Thomas Kean Jr.
00:19:36 - Iran
00:24:43 - Kirk Bado on Primaries
01:11:10 - Wrap-up
