We’re in the final week of the midterms, and the polling is pointing in one direction: Democratic domination. Outside of a few edge cases in Michigan and Minnesota, there’s not much showing Republican overperformance. The question now is whether Republicans are coming home — and there’s at least one race where I think that’s happening.
In Texas, James Talarico had been consistently running three or four points ahead of Ken Paxton. The latest polls now show Paxton up one, Talarico up four, two ties and Talarico up one. I don’t know what that means, and friends don’t let friends extrapolate early-voting data. I’ve always thought this would be a toss-up, but I’m a fundamentals guy. If it’s close, Texas be Texasing, and I’d bet on the Republican.
