Right now, the prediction markets have James Talarico at about 60–40, and the polling shows either a tied race or one where he’s slightly ahead of Ken Paxton. But I live in the most liberal enclave of Texas, and this doesn’t feel like Beto mania. You see Talarico signs around Austin, but you don’t see the same cultural energy. Maybe that’s by design. Talarico is trying to appeal more to the middle, and Beto lost in a favorable environment during Trump’s first midterm.
The biggest wind at Talarico’s back is the environment. Trump is historically unpopular, gas prices are high, inflation is persistent, and people are paying more to get the same or less. That’s a recipe for killing presidential and party momentum. It would help Republicans if they had a dynamic candidate, but Paxton is a big fat bullfrog who mostly sits on a log and puffs his neck. Mr. Saturday Night he isn’t, and his lack of charisma may be the least of his problems. He’s rife with scandal, including a divorce from his very loyal wife on biblical grounds.
My crystallized view is that these are two weak candidates. Talarico is weak because of who he is: a slight guy from the most progressive place in a state that isn’t progressive, with years of statements from the legislature that can and will be used against him. He took progressive positions during a progressive age that are no longer fashionable. That would normally be enough to sink a candidate, but it hasn’t because I think he’s running a good campaign. The upside comparison is Brock Purdy — undersized, underqualified, carrying baggage from his past, but succeeding when he finally gets his shot.
Talarico’s campaign still seems unsure how to sell him. One ad puts him in a rocking chair on a front porch somewhere outside Austin, trying to reassure religious voters that he’s just like everyday Texans. But the chair’s back towers over his head, making an already slight candidate look even smaller. Paxton’s campaign, meanwhile, stinks on ice. Until MAGA Inc. and the Senate Leadership Fund arrived, he barely had a pitch. He doesn’t talk to the camera, doesn’t appear in his own ads, and hasn’t offered a basic argument about what he accomplished as attorney general. The outside groups are now doing that work for him.
The coalition problem cuts both ways. Talarico needs the Democratic city centers, Black voters around Houston, and Hispanics along the border who moved toward Trump in 2024. But Jasmine Crockett still hasn’t bridged the gap between Talarico and Black voters after losing the primary. She released an endorsement list without his name on it. Paxton needs the suburbs, rural Texas, and as many Trump-voting Hispanics as possible, but John Cornyn seems perfectly happy to watch him crash and burn after losing the Republican primary. Cornyn and Crockett should form the Sore Losers Guild.
So, does Talarico have a shot? Yes, but everything has to go right. He got the opponent, environment, and campaigns he wanted, but it’s like needing a coin to land tails 10 times — getting nine doesn’t matter if the last flip is heads. Texas remains highly polarized, voters still dislike the Democratic Party, the Republican advantage may improve if gas prices fall, and Democrats are being badly outspent. I don’t think backing Talarico is ridiculous, but with plus money available on a Republican in Texas, I’d feel like a real horse’s ass on election night if I passed it up.
Chapters
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:45 - Texas
00:23:07 - Update
00:24:18 - America.gov
00:27:39 - Iran
00:32:32 - AI
00:34:28 - Interview with Juliegrace Brufke
01:15:34 - Wrap-up
