The memorandum of understanding with Iran landed last week, and the reaction has been explosive. Some people are furious. Some people are thrilled. The world, by and large, seems eager to put this war behind it. Israel is the major exception. From Israel’s perspective, the Islamic Republic has dedicated a large portion of what it spends every year to destroying Israel, and this is the closest the two sides have come to active combat. As I understand the region, the United States usually doesn’t leave the Middle East until we tell Israel no. Israel is generally happy when America gets involved because our interests align more often than not, but they will always want a little more than what is palatable to the American sensibility.
I’ve been trying to understand the tectonic plates underneath these negotiations. One is the health and stability of the Islamic Republic itself. How secure do they believe they are? How much do they agree on the path forward? How much damage do they think has been done? The other is the price of gas. That’s been my obsession lately. Down the road from me, regular gas has fallen below three dollars. Nationally, prices have fallen below $3.99 on average. The questions are obvious: How much is America tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? How much oil is Iran selling under the table? How much of this is Russia? How much is something else entirely?
