Anybody who tells you they know exactly how the midterms are going to go is straight-up lying. The indicators are pointing every which way. Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin is dealing with a horrifyingly embarrassing story, terrible fundraising, and online chatter about whether he should resign. Meanwhile, Americans for Prosperity’s own door-knockers are reporting that one in five automatic Republican voters isn’t enthusiastic about voting, potentially putting Senate races in Iowa and Ohio in peril.
Trump remains extraordinarily popular within the Republican Party, with approval ratings somewhere in the mid-to-high 80s. But independents have never liked him less. Republicans might be able to turn out their voters, except those voters might not be excited, while the independents who helped decide the 2024 election have turned against Trump. Put everything in a blender, throw it on frappe, and inspect the results. Right now, I see a suicide slush of “I don’t know what.”
