Abdul El-Sayed is going to be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan, but the victory was much closer than it looked when I initially planned to call it. With 23 percent of the vote counted, Haley Stevens was barely leading in Oakland County, which she represents in Congress, and the outstanding votes appeared to favor El-Sayed. I thought he was heading toward an eight-to-ten-point win. Instead, the margin narrowed to about 1.4 percent. Barring some miraculous vote drop out of Detroit, El-Sayed wins, but this wasn’t an overwhelming progressive victory.
The polling miss is the polling miss. Congressional polling is never the most reliable. What’s strategically telling is that much of the expectation for a blowout came from El-Sayed’s own campaign, which released internal polling showing him ahead by 15 points. That obviously didn’t happen. Can you question the wisdom of releasing those numbers? You can. You can question that wisdom.
I still got my prediction wrong. I picked Stevens by five, so allow me to eat the mistakes. My prediction was closer to the final result than El-Sayed’s internal polls, but a loss is still a loss. I believed Mallory McMorrow’s female voting bloc would break more heavily for Stevens. I said from the beginning that McMorrow would decide this race; I just didn’t realize it would be her ghost bridging the gap between the other two candidates.
El-Sayed started this three-way dance as the owner of the progressive lane, and he owned the issues that mattered in Michigan. It didn’t matter how folksy the Stevens campaign tried to make her. El-Sayed won, the establishment lost, and progressives deserve to celebrate. Raise a PBR and let your tears stain your unused college degree. Progressive listeners can dance on my shame because they’ve earned it.
But the lesson for progressives is the opposite of what it was on The Real World: They need to stop getting real and start getting polite. Their movement isn’t overwhelming. I don’t care how fired up Michigan is about Israel, Medicare for All, or any other progressive policy. El-Sayed needs Haley Stevens voters if he’s going to defeat Mike Rogers. He needs to reach out and say, “Let’s stick it to ‘em… together,” because progressives aren’t going to get there by doing it exactly their way forever.
This is still a big day for progressives, but the final margin changes what it means. It wasn’t proof that they can squash the establishment on their own. It was proof that they can win a close primary and then immediately need the people they just beat. Celebrate the victory, take the lesson from the margin, and rerack for the general election.
Chapters
00:00:00 - Intro and Updated Michigan Thoughts
00:03:10 - Progressives and the Establishment
00:12:37 - Evan Scrimshaw on 2028 Democratic Primaries
01:18:44 - Wrap-up
