I think your missing a big factor in your analysis. If the Trump campaign has been able to neutralize or match the 2020 ballot harvesting efforts of the Dems then that could easily be a 1-2% downswing in the Democrat vote.
That number won't show in the polling as most of those voters would be considered "disinterested" at best.
I think a simple way to explain the ticket splitting scenarios is: Trump is much more popular than republicans and Democrats are slightly more popular than Harris (formerly Biden)
The 2016 Wisconsin senate race might be a good comparison. Russ Feingold was a relatively popular Senator (I may be misremembering) but I do think Trump lifted Ron Johnson to victory.
"Georgia's stupid run-off rule", also known as no candidate could convice a majority of voters to vote for them, so let's try again. The run-off rule could be improved with some form of ranked choice voting (and GA does actually have a version of instant runoff already happening for overseas voters, where they fill two ballot, one with their choice and a second that only gets opened during a run-off with their choices ranked). GA's run-off rule might be stupid when compared to Alaska's system, but it seems way better than the majority of states that a candidate can still win even if a majority of voters voted against them.
Just because I know you’re a perfectionist like me Justin, we could hear your yawn and breathing at around 15:00 and a few places after. didn’t really bother, but just in case you wanted to adjust levels.
“Ah Fuck, Mistake”
yahhhh… sorry
No, I loved it. Gave me the giggle I needed today.
I think your missing a big factor in your analysis. If the Trump campaign has been able to neutralize or match the 2020 ballot harvesting efforts of the Dems then that could easily be a 1-2% downswing in the Democrat vote.
That number won't show in the polling as most of those voters would be considered "disinterested" at best.
I think a simple way to explain the ticket splitting scenarios is: Trump is much more popular than republicans and Democrats are slightly more popular than Harris (formerly Biden)
The 2016 Wisconsin senate race might be a good comparison. Russ Feingold was a relatively popular Senator (I may be misremembering) but I do think Trump lifted Ron Johnson to victory.
"Georgia's stupid run-off rule", also known as no candidate could convice a majority of voters to vote for them, so let's try again. The run-off rule could be improved with some form of ranked choice voting (and GA does actually have a version of instant runoff already happening for overseas voters, where they fill two ballot, one with their choice and a second that only gets opened during a run-off with their choices ranked). GA's run-off rule might be stupid when compared to Alaska's system, but it seems way better than the majority of states that a candidate can still win even if a majority of voters voted against them.
Just because I know you’re a perfectionist like me Justin, we could hear your yawn and breathing at around 15:00 and a few places after. didn’t really bother, but just in case you wanted to adjust levels.
yeahhhh... this is an issue with Riverside that I am going spend some time this week trying to solve for