Wisconsin Democrats narrowly chose Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley over Democratic Socialist state representative Francesca Hong in the gubernatorial primary, 39.8 percent to 39.4 percent. It’s close enough that this might be headed to a recount, but it doesn’t appear that Hong won. Crowley, who was endorsed by Governor Tony Evers, will face Trump-endorsed Republican representative Tom Tiffany. The result halted the progressive left’s recent primary momentum, but it still showed its strength in a battleground state.
What you’re probably going to hear about is the polling. After the polls wildly overestimated Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, the final State Navigate poll had Hong at 44 percent and Crowley at 22 percent — a 22-point Hong lead. Instead, Crowley won by 0.4 percent. That’s a 22.4-point miss on the margin. Jeez Louise. Hong’s vote share wasn’t wildly off; the poll totally underestimated Crowley. The question is why these polls keep overrepresenting progressive-leaning voters.
One theory is that more polls are using online surveys. The old problem with landline calls was that they overrepresented boomers because nobody under 60 had a landline. Nobody answers an unfamiliar number on a cellphone, so that leaves online responses, which might overrepresent progressives. It’s also worth noting that the DSA endorsed Hong, but Bernie Sanders and AOC didn’t. Pure DSA play isn’t good enough to get you over the hump, even in a Democratic primary. Bernie and AOC provide some wiggle room away from the DSA’s baggage.
Next door, Minnesota Democrats delivered a decisive progressive victory as Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan defeated Representative Angie Craig by 20 points for the open Senate nomination. Flanagan overcame a major spending disadvantage after attacking Craig’s immigration record, particularly her 2025 vote expanding ICE authority. Republicans nominated former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya, but barring huge changes in the race, Flanagan is going to be Minnesota’s next senator. In the governor’s race, Amy Klobuchar easily secured the Democratic nomination, while state House speaker Lisa Demuth defeated Trump-backed My Pillow founder Mike Lindell. Please raise your combs in celebration.
South Carolina’s emergency election to replace Lindsey Graham is headed to an August 25 runoff between interim senator Darlene Graham and Representative Ralph Norman. Graham, Lindsey’s sister and Trump’s endorsed candidate, finished first with 32.7 percent. Norman took the second spot with 24.6 percent, narrowly eliminating Representative Russell Fry. The vote was pretty split, and I don’t know whether Darlene has the juice to keep Norman off. A lot of Republicans were already angry that she decided to seek the seat permanently instead of serving as a placeholder. Ralph Norman has a real shot. The kiss of death for Darlene would be the double endorsement — a double Trump endorsement.
Former Hartford mayor Luke Bronin also defeated 14-term Democratic representative John Larson, 54 percent to 33 percent. Larson, 78, became the seventh House Democrat defeated in a primary this cycle, while Governor Ned Lamont won renomination. In Alabama, Trump-endorsed Republican Rhett Marques advanced to face Democratic representative Shomari Figures in the redrawn Second District, where the Black voting-age population was reduced from 48 percent to 40 percent.
Chapters
00:00:00 - Intro
00:05:42 - Tuesday Primary Results
00:16:18 - Exploring Disney’s America with Andrew Heaton
01:19:36 - Wrap-up
