We appeared to be on the cusp of what might’ve been the climactic chapter of several decades of American dealings in the Middle East. The United States would strike targets Iran considered apocalyptic red lines, Iran would respond by destroying critical energy and desalination infrastructure, and we’d see what happened when the regional outbreak of violence became Iran’s final bit of leverage. Then we stopped. We heard Iran wanted a deal, so now there’s apparently a deal — question mark?
Nobody knows exactly what the deal is. The rumors are that the center of the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, with some kind of maintenance fee paid into a regional network that wouldn’t explicitly be for Iran but wouldn’t exclude Iran. In exchange, the naval blockade would be lifted and Iran could sell oil. We’ll see what happens to Brent crude over the next week. Even if the international community views this as a weak deal, Democrats probably won’t highlight anything that makes prices go lower. Aside from the Israel hawks, everybody might just move on.
