Texas has found itself in the spotlight over the past few days, and for pretty interesting reasons at that. First, we saw a Texas special election that flipped a deeply Republican district at the state level. In a seat Donald Trump carried by roughly 17 points, Democrats managed to pull off a low-turnout win. This was not a wave election, and pretending otherwise does not help anyone. Special elections are weird, electorates are tiny, and turnout models collapse. But the direction still matters.
However, Republicans continue to rely on a coalition that is extremely Trump-centric. When he is not on the ballot, participation drops, especially among lower-propensity voters. Democrats, by contrast, have been showing up consistently in off-cycle contests. While that does not guarantee success in a general election year, it is enough to justify early anxiety. If Republicans cannot reliably mobilize their voters without Trump himself, Texas becomes less static than it has been for decades.
That volatility should be a gift to Democrats. Instead, the Texas Democratic Senate primary is rapidly becoming a cautionary tale. Senator John Cornyn’s seat is up, Ken Paxton is leading on the Republican side, and Democrats should be salivating. Paxton is polarizing, ethically radioactive, and deeply divisive. In theory, this is the opening Democrats have been waiting for.
In practice, the primary is turning ugly. James Talarico, a rising star with genuine crossover appeal, now finds himself in a five-alarm crisis after a viral allegation that he described Colin Allred as a “mediocre Black man” while expecting to face him in the race. The context, the intent, and the precise wording are now almost secondary. What matters is that the damage landed squarely where a Texas Democrat cannot afford it: trust with Black voters.
Colin Allred’s response was not subtle. He went directly at Talarico, endorsed Jasmine Crockett, and framed the controversy as a racial and moral failing, not a messaging mistake. Talarico’s apology attempted to split the difference, acknowledging poor phrasing without directly calling the accuser a liar. That move may have been legally cautious, but politically it validated the outrage. With the primary weeks away and a runoff likely, Democrats are now locked into a prolonged intraparty fight that makes the eventual nominee weaker, not stronger.
Zooming out, this is why Texas continues to torment Democrats. Structural conditions occasionally line up. Republican candidates overreach. Demographic change inches forward. But the moment opportunity appears, the coalition turns inward. Instead of clearing the field and running a disciplined campaign against Ken Paxton, Democrats are now litigating identity, intent, and trust in public.
The tragedy here is not ideological. It is tactical. Texas Democrats do not need a perfect candidate. They need a boring one who does not give voters a reason to hesitate. Every additional week spent tearing down a potential nominee is a week Paxton gets for free. If Democrats manage to lose this race, it will not be because Texas is unwinnable. It will be because they couldn’t get out of their own way.
Chapters
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:37 - Drama in Texas
00:18:02 - Michael Cohen on Texas, Midterms, and More
00:38:36 - Update
00:38:52 - Clintons
00:41:00 - Shutdown
00:43:15 - Republicans’ House Margin
00:44:22 - Michael Cohen on Texas, Midterms, and More, con’t
01:19:52 - Wrap-up
