As of Friday, the immediate shutdown threat is off the table, but only barely and only temporarily. Senate Democrats and the White House cut a narrow deal that allows the rest of the government funding bills to pass while carving out the Department of Homeland Security for a two week stopgap. In practical terms, DHS funding is being kicked down the road so Democrats can negotiate immigration enforcement reforms in the wake of the Alex Pretti shooting without holding the entire government hostage.
This is not a resolution. It is a pause. The critical question now is not whether DHS comes back up for a vote, but what comes back with it. Any revised DHS bill will return to the House, and it will not return alone. Republicans are going to demand something in exchange for moving it back across the river. What that price is, policy concessions, procedural changes, unrelated riders, is the real story to watch over the next two weeks.
