I opened the show with a data point that deserves more attention than it received over the weekend. In a Trump plus 17 district in Tarrant County, Texas, Democrats flipped a state Senate seat in a low turnout Saturday special election. This was not a wave election, and anyone claiming it was is overstating the case. Turnout was tiny, and special elections are always weird. But the pattern is becoming harder to ignore. Democrats keep overperforming in off cycle, low propensity contests, and Republicans keep depending on voters who only reliably show up when Donald Trump is on the ballot.
There are only two explanations, and neither is good for Republicans. Either meaningful parts of the Trump coalition are drifting away, or that coalition is simply unreliable once Trump himself is not the central figure. I remain skeptical that we are seeing mass defections, but volatility alone is enough to justify early wave watching. Democrats would much rather be riding momentum than explaining away losses, and right now the vibes are clearly better on the blue side than the red.
