When it comes to the war in Iran, my supposition is that the economic negativity driving the country — and creating an environment where Democrats could do very well in the midterms — is entirely about one thing: the price of gas. The war is incredibly unpopular, but it’s different from the war in Iraq. Both were very expensive, but Iraq brought coffins back at a scale we haven’t seen here. The biggest difference is what Americans are paying at the pump.
According to AAA’s live average, gas is at $4.44 nationally. It’s higher in states like California and New York, but even here in Texas, where we have relatively low gas prices, it’s edging toward $4. During the memorandum of understanding, that son of a bitch kissed the twos. Before the war in Iran, it was sitting around the twos. It’s not good right now.
The question is whether this is Iran’s play. Iran is extraordinarily sophisticated in its understanding of the American electorate and the American democratic system. Are they timing their greatest chaos in the region to spike the price of oil as high as possible during election season? The United States appeared to have established a flow of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but now we’ve seen missiles and drones fired at American vessels and major damage to Saudi Arabia’s 745-mile east-west pipeline.
That pipeline can move four to five million barrels a day — roughly 4 to 5 percent of the global supply. Saudi Aramco has already told three European refiners they won’t receive their full September allotments, forcing them to buy emergency stock on the open market. Because oil is a globally traded commodity, that drives up the price. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth has warned that stockpile releases and access to previously restricted oil stored abroad had constrained prices, but those buffers are now played out. Iran has been warning about $200-a-barrel oil since the beginning of the conflict.
The obvious historical comparison is Jimmy Carter. But this isn’t 1979. Headline inflation was 11.8 percent then, compared with 3.4 percent now, and unemployment was 6 percent instead of 4.1 percent. We’re doing better by those measures, but will any of it matter? Gas was 98 cents a gallon in August 1979. In August 2026, it was $4.20, and it’s even higher now.
The sunniest version of Trump’s tariff policy was that he’d become the greatest energy president of all time and drive gas prices low enough to give him room to negotiate better trade deals. All of that went out the window with the rush into Iran. Even if you don’t totally hate the war from a foreign-policy standpoint, you can understand that this is political poison. It’s strychnine for the average voter. Electing Trump was, in part, a cry for economic relief from people who didn’t trust Joe Biden to provide it. The numbers currently suggest Democrats will receive that same benefit of the doubt. Whether it holds when people vote is the question.
Chapters
00:00:00 - Intro
00:03:25 - Gas Prices
00:16:34 - Update
00:16:59 - Data Centers
00:18:20 - ICE
00:19:34 - Kennedy Center
00:21:46 - Interview with Michael Cohen
01:00:02 - Wrap-up
