Brian Kemp is out. No Senate run in 2026, and that shifts the entire field. Kemp was the Republican Party’s best shot at flipping the Georgia seat currently held by Jon Ossoff — and he knew it. He didn’t just flirt with the idea. He let it hang out there long enough for donors, strategists, and journalists to start treating it as likely. So when he made it official this weekend, it sent shockwaves through the Georgia GOP and national Republicans hoping for a clean, high-profile pickup in a battleground state.
Let’s be clear: Kemp would’ve been a problem for Ossoff. He’s a two-term governor with a reputation for competency, no Trump baggage, and enough distance from the MAGA wing to appeal to suburban voters. He beat Stacey Abrams twice. He stared down Trump in 2020 and walked away stronger. There are few Republicans who can claim that kind of profile. Without him, the bench gets thin — and fast.
Ossoff is already pulling in national dollars, and now he doesn’t have to spend the next 12 months preparing for a Kemp-style challenge. That gives him time to build narrative, define the race early, and lock down coalitions that might’ve been vulnerable in a high-turnout, split-ticket election. Democrats don’t have to win Georgia by a landslide — they just need to hold it. And in a cycle that’s already looking rough for Republicans in other swing states, the GOP needed Georgia to be easy. It’s not.
Now the question becomes whether Republicans want to rally around a moderate and play defense, or roll the dice with a firebrand and try to rally the base. Either option carries risk. A moderate might not excite anyone. A MAGA pick might turn the whole race into a referendum on January 6 or Trump loyalty. And the problem with a crowded primary isn’t just messaging — it’s money. Ossoff gets to hoard his resources while Republicans knife each other in the dark.
It’s early, but the GOP just lost its best card. And unless something big changes — a surprise retirement, a shocking recruit, a sudden scandal — this race has quietly shifted from “toss-up” to “lean blue.” Not because Ossoff is invincible. But because the Republican bench is looking thin, the calendar is ticking, and Brian Kemp just said, “No thanks.” Heck, if Marjorie Taylor-Greene steps in, it might just be Ossoff +7. And it will not be for lack of news coverage.
Chapters
00:00:00 - Intro
00:02:48 - Brian Kemp Not Running for Senate
00:06:18 - Interview with Aubrey Sitterson
01:14:20 - Wrap-up
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