Gaza Ceasefire Phase One. Shutdown Messaging Wars Continue. National Guard in Chicago.

This was a weekend of movement in Gaza. The first phase of the ceasefire is in effect. Hostages are beginning to be released, and so are Palestinian prisoners. We’re also hearing that Mahmoud Abbas will be at a signing ceremony in Egypt, signaling that the Palestinian Authority may take over some governing responsibilities from Hamas. That’s a lot of change happening very quickly. There are also reports of the IDF setting fire to certain facilities on their way out and Hamas escalating violence against rival gangs. As always, I take all of this with a grain of salt. War zones aren’t the place for transparency, and nobody is incentivized to tell the truth.

The foreign policy establishment was quick to weigh in. JD Vance was on every Sunday show reminding people that 200 U.S. troops will be in the region to support this process — not in Gaza, but close. There was also discussion about whether Egyptian troops might be deployed. That’s still a maybe. Behind the scenes, there’s some coalescing around Israel from other Middle Eastern governments. Not because they love Israel, but because they really don’t like Iran. Leaders in countries like Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia see Iran as a problem — bad for business, oil, and regional influence.