The United States and Iran have made little progress in their talks, and American officials see a risk of major combat returning after the midterms. But something important has changed: Iran’s leverage over the world’s energy supply is disappearing. Crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and bypass routes reached nearly 80 percent of prewar regional flows, while JPMorgan estimated total Middle East exports at 98 percent of prewar levels. Iran hasn’t been able to keep Hormuz closed, and the strait no longer looks like something it can effectively tax.
Iran could still attack regional refineries, but it would risk having its own facilities destroyed and putting itself years behind economically. Right now, Iran could begin making money tomorrow if sanctions and the American blockade were lifted. If Kharg Island is destroyed after attacks on Saudi or Emirati oil infrastructure, that changes. Maybe Iran won’t take that risk. Maybe it’ll look for unconventional ways to inflict pain instead.
