We finally have our first real trade win of Trump’s second term: the United Kingdom is in. This was the deal I’ve been predicting — a framework where allies opt into a 10% tariff baseline in exchange for market access and some headline export wins. It’s bourbon, it’s motorcycles, it’s symbolism more than substance — but it’s something. And more importantly, it’s repeatable.
This is the “Liberation Day” tariff strategy in action. You start with chaos. You throw markets into uncertainty. Then you carve out exemptions and deals one at a time and declare victory with each one. It’s not elegant, but it’s effective — at least in terms of narrative control. The UK deal sets the tone. Now we’ll see if Australia and India follow. And if they do, the argument that Trump has no plan starts to fall apart.
The China side of the equation is still murky, but you can feel something shifting. Trump teased a “massive” trade announcement on Truth Social, and behind the scenes, there’s buzz that we might see a holiday pause or partial rollback on the 145% China tariffs — the ones that effectively created a mini embargo. It wouldn’t be a full walk-back, but it would be enough to get product flowing again.
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