The question right now is simple: where are we at with Iran? After the ceasefire, it looked like traffic through the Strait of Hormuz might return to normal. Instead, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reasserted control by sending two one-way drones at separate oil tankers transiting the waterway. Both drones hit. There was no significant damage, but the point wasn’t destruction. The point was to rattle the insurance markets.
My understanding is that there are forces within Iran that are primarily concerned with the country’s economic health and believe it is on the verge of fiscal collapse. That’s why the blockade of Iranian oil was more effective than military strikes on the country, and why the initial carrot to bring Iran back to the table was the ability to sell oil. Everything else in the memorandum of understanding may be performance-based, but money is the constant.
