The Iran war is back on. Donald Trump says the memorandum of understanding has been violated, the ceasefire is over, and we are hitting targets inside Iran while Iran is hitting American bases. Oil prices jumped after Trump declared the ceasefire “over,” with U.S. crude briefly topping $75 a barrel before easing back down. Iran’s leverage, if it is not military, is economic disruption, and the price to watch is crude. If it stays in the low seventies, that is enough for a little inflationary spike, but it is not bringing the world to its knees.
