Donald Trump set off predictable alarm bells with a late night Truth Social post warning Iran that the United States was “locked and loaded” if the regime violently suppressed protesters. The timing and tone fueled speculation about war, but I do not believe that is where this is headed. Iran is facing real internal unrest after its currency collapsed, and Trump’s message reads less like a call to arms and more like a warning shot aimed over the heads of the regime and toward the Iranian people.
This fits Trump’s familiar madman theory approach. He wants adversaries to constantly factor in what he could do, not necessarily what he plans to do. The reality is that Iran’s capacity to meaningfully retaliate is limited, especially after recent U.S. strikes on nuclear facilities and the depletion of its missile stockpiles. The threat is performative, but it is not empty. Whether it actually deters violence against protesters is another question entirely.
