We’re fresh off one of the most consequential weekends of the Trump presidency. The United States bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran — a strike that’s been years, if not decades, in the making. The big question now isn’t what happened — we know what happened. The question is what happens next. And no one, not even the experts, seems entirely sure.
We’ve knocked out Iran’s enrichment capacity for now, but what does Iran do in response? They say they’ll close the Strait of Hormuz. Okay, but do they mean really close it, or just make it harder for everyone except their tankers to get through? Do they sabotage their own oil industry just to spike prices? That seems self-defeating. Do they unleash terror cells they’ve built up through their proxies? Maybe. We don’t know. What’s clear is that Iran’s conventional options are limited, and their unconventional ones are dangerous. And inside Iran? That’s a black box. Maybe this unites the country around Khamenei. Maybe it cracks the regime. I don’t know. Nobody does.
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